Maiden America Wednesday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks races at Keeneland, including the Jessamine Stakes
Maiden America 10.13.21
The Hooptie Handicapper
Having escalated challenges and increasingly descending propinquity with Haynes, and in the words of Joe Strummer from The Clash, ‘should I stay or should I go,’ it’s bury the head in pp’s and bring you some picks today from beautiful Lexington, Kentucky, and Keeneland Racetrack. 😊 Like Richard Nixon, I am tanned, rested and ready.
Keeneland Race 1 - $75K Maiden Claiming
Fillies and mares three years old↑ going seven furlongs
I am going with 1-Living For Today (8/1) she has taken a break since March and although this is a tenuous spot, she has the chutzpah to get it done. Her works have been solid and fillies by Carpe Diem in their second start are a solid 27% win prop.
Keeneland Race 2 - $84K Maiden Special
Three year olds↑ going nine and a half panels on turf
I did a deep database search and looked at the number of maiden races and percentage of winners with this much experience. The results are by number of races:
6 – 16%
10 – 18%
5 – 14%
8 – 14%
9 – 24%
3 – 12%
4 – 16%
7 – 14%
The horse with nine races is 7-Tolkien (30/1) who just finished twelve lengths back in a $50K maiden claimer, so 24% is not too fetching. That leaves us with all things being equal percentage-wise. 10-Conglomerate (2/1) is bound to take a lot of money with the Chad/Irad duo. However, this horse is a false favorite to me given his workouts of late and his propensity to burn money. 11-Mount Kenya (4/1) looks interesting based on Equibase scores, yet three times out and two place finishes tells me that he has learned losing is ok. 2-February Son (10/1), 9-Freddy Flintshire (6/1), 8-Mclovin (20/1), and 6-Warbird (8/1), all chased each other in a $135K msw race at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 5 with Warbird and February Son getting the best results. February Son’s lineage does not have the staying type, so he is a pass. Freddy Flintshire was a well beaten favorite out of that race and although he has Galileo in his lineage, his last work coming off that race was a four furlong :52, which is a red flag. 6-Warbird (8/1) is from Declaration Of War, a black type sire who has gotten further distances in Europe, including winning the Juddmonte International at York going a mile and five sixteenths. He just clocked a solid 1:01 work leading into this, and he is the choice.
Keeneland Race 8 – The 200K Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes
2yo fillies going a mile and a sixteenth on turf
3-Turnerloose (5/2) is going to go off at low odds today and will see zero $$$ from me. Nyquist fillies are not a good third time start proposition, so she is a pass. In our database is seven records of 2yo stakes races on turf for this year. Of the winners, of the seven, three of the winners last race was on dirt, one in the slop, one on synthetic and two on turf. So, the previous surface has not been an angle to wager with and frankly, could be a detriment if a dirt horse’s numbers are every bit as good a dirt to turf today horse. Most turf races see higher speed figures than dirt. I am going with 8-Queen Judith (15/1) Julien Leparoux did an expert job last out getting her to the rail and bursting through for a big win. That was her debut race, and she scored an 80 Equibase number, which gives ample room to best the numbers that others have today.
Happy Hunting 😊