Maiden America Sunday: The Hooptie Handicapper returns with 2 picks for non-winner races at Keeneland
Maiden America 10.10.21
A few quick picks before I meet pretty Shayla this morning for breakfast.
Keeneland Race 2 - $84K Maiden Special
2yo Fillies going a mile on turf
Equibase has this rated as an 85 and except for first time starters, none have hit that number. According to our database, third time starters are 4/52 or 7%. Furthermore, second time starters who can project to qualify over 85 are 12-Mission Belle (12/1), Chad Brown’s 8-Requestforproposal (3/1), 8-Under One Sky (6/1), and 10-High Meadows (15/1). Bearing in mind that 2nd timers are only 13% from msw to msw, the choice is based on pedigree and if any first time starts are capable. Mission Belle’s dad is Noble Mission who is 0% 2nd time turfers, so she’s a no. Mastery is RFP’s sire and he is 8% with second timers and 0% if it’s turf. However, Chad Brown is always tough, so I’d go with him in exotics. Under One Sky’s sire Unified is 33% with second timers and the three that are on turf were losers, so pass. High Meadows has Mastery as sire and he is 15% with first timers and 6% on turf routes. So, nothing thus far to write mom about. I am intrigued by 5-Money Taker (15/1) who has pedestrian works, yet her daddy, Not This Time is a strong 22% first time starters on turf. I am going to roll with the George Arnold Tapit filly 4-Loved Reiko (12/1) who has just put in a sharp work at 48% and Tapit is a solid 22% trust first time/first route sire.
Keeneland Race 4 - $84K Maiden Special
2yo Fillies going a mile and a sixteenth
1-Full Focus (2/1) a homebred and owned Godolphin filly looks to takes this today and should. Sire Medaglia d’Oro is a strong 43% with 2yo fillies in their second start and first route. The ones who did not win, from that history, have all exceeded today’s 73 Equibase par. Additionally, her :46.4 work shows she’s a serious player. With the exception of 5-Porouni (8/1) as a first timer, I really do not see any of the others hitting par today. Pioneer of the Nile’s progeny are only 13% win prop first out/first route. Her works have been less than stellar and as much as I loathe playing chalk, there is no other choice in this.
Happy Hunting 😊