OUR FOURTH CONSECUTIVE PROFITABLE DAY
Saturday’s Race Recap from Belmont and Keeneland:
(All odds US)
Race replays from Belmont Park can be found here:
Belmont Park:
Race 1: 5th@ 41.75/1
Race 5: 1st@ 2.50/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 6: 3rd@ 3.50/1
Race 8: 3rd@ 2.75/1
In Race 1 we took a shot with Elegant Laoban at long odds because we knew the favorite was fraudulent. The 2/5 favorite lost but Elegant Laoban finished a non-threatening 5th. In Race 5, Following Sea broke fast and was allowed to set a relatively slow pace en route to an emphatic victory in the Vosburgh. In Race 6, Mystic Eyes broke like a shot and looked like she might be tough to catch turning for home but Brad Cox’s Bubble Rock surged past in mid stretch and Mystic Eyes tired to third. In Race 8, Neuro made his move wide entering the stretch and couldn’t do better than 3rd.
Race Replays from Keeneland can be found here:
Keeneland:
Race 1: 6th@ 3.10/1
Race 8: 1st@ 5.30/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 11: 3rd@ 4.50/1
We began our day at Keeneland with Mo Heat breaking slowly. I was hoping they’d have him on the lead but because he broke slowly he had to stalk. Was third on the turn and tired in the lane. In Race 8, Blowout did what we hoped she would do and sped off to the early lead. Once in the stretch she withstood a serious stretch challenge from her stablemate, Regal Glory for the win. In Race 11, Surfer Dude ran his race leading til mid-stretch before getting passed by Giant Game and Call Me Midnight.
We’ll stay at Keeneland for Sunday’s races where we expect track conditions similar to Saturday with a fast main track and a firm turf course. Let’s get started!
Sunday picks for Keeneland:
Race 5: No Que No - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Starter allowance runners sprint 6 1/2 furlongs and if the morning line odds are any indication, this is likely to be a contentious race. No Que No is interesting to me. He ships in for the same connections as champion Letruska who runs later on in the Spinster and he had a breakout performance racing on dirt at Saratoga after spending most of his career as a turf sprinter. The race he won at Saratoga was a productive one with the two runners finishing behind him improving their speed figures by 12 points and 14 points in their next starts respectively. That tells me the speed figure this one earned last out might actually be higher than he was assigned. Value at 7/2.
Race 8: Kaufymaker - 1 pt win (Us Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Two-year-old turf sprinters throw it down in this 5 1/2 furlong Indian Summer Stakes. Trainer Wesley Ward has Avery Jane running here against the boys as the 4/5 morning line favorite to stay undefeated but I actually prefer Ward’s other charge - Kaufymaker. This runner is getting blinkers off - a 24% winning move for trainer Ward. Kaufymaker is running 2nd time off a layoff which is a 32% move for this trainer. Most importantly she picks up the services of top rider Irad Ortiz which I think will be a good fit. She’s liable to be overlooked but Ward thought enough of her to ship her to Royal Ascot in June so she’s worth a long look at 7/2 or better.
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Race 10: Martini’nmoonshine - 1 pt win (Us Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
The Grade 2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes for two-year-olds at a mile and a sixteenth drew an ultra-competitive field. Martini’nmoonshine improved off a disastrous main track effort to score going first time turf at Saratoga in gate to wire fashion. There’s not a ton of pace signed on here and with top rider Tyler Gaffalione back to ride, this runner looks to be the speed closest to the rail and may just scoot away early. Last out, several of the runners he faced have returned to run well including two next-out winners and another who improved his speed figure by 15 points. With the right trip, Martini’nmoonshine could be long gone.
Best of luck to everyone playing Sunday’s races from Keeneland!