Garrity's Sunday Stakes picks races at Monmouth Park, Belmont and Woodbine, likes 2 more Appleby Euro imports
We have four plays on this late-summer Sunday, all on turf, in New Jersey, New York, and Ontario. We expect firm turf in all four; there’s money to be made, so let’s go.
Monmouth Park, Race 10, 4:33 pm ET
$85,000 Joey P. Handicap, 5 furlongs, Turf, New Jersey-breds 3 & Up
The Joey P. is a nice little state-bred stakes race at the Jersey Shore that drew a field of eleven. The pick is 1-Quiberon Bay, who has been running in longer races this summer, all at a mile or a mile and a sixteenth, but a couple of them were against open company (i.e. horses bred in other states), and who consequently seems more than capable of handling this fairly weak field of New Jersey-bred horses. The five furlong distance here is probably shorter than his best, but we think his ability can carry him to the winner’s circle, and his 6-1 morning line price is very attractive. We will bet him to win. The bet: Monmouth Park, Race 10, $35 to win on 1-Quiberon Bay.
Woodbine, Race 8, 5:06 pm ET
Grade 1 Natalma Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, 2-Year-Old Fillies
Ten go in the Natalma. Trainer Charlie Appleby had a sensational day yesterday, winning stakes races at both Belmont and Woodbine with Godolphin runners, and we see that trend continuing here, as 5-Wild Beauty, a daughter of top stallion Frankel, looks to be much the best of this group. Her last race was a good second in a Group 3 race at Newmarket; we are expecting her to become a Grade 1 winner today. We will bet her to win at 5/2. The bet: Woodbine, Race 8, $50 to win on 5-Wild Beauty.
Belmont Park, Race 9, 5:16 pm ET
$150,000 Pebbles Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, 3-Year-Old Fillies
A good field of thirteen lines up for the Pebbles. After European horses once again dominated the turf races at Belmont Park yesterday, we are picking a filly from the Continent, but it’s one who will fly under the radar of most: It’s 10-Spirit of Bermuda, an Irish-bred filly who goes for trainer William Haggas off a couple fo fair-to-middling efforts at tracks in England. We like that she has done better on firmer going, which she will get today; we like that she looks to be a late-blooming sort, and seems poised for a big step forward in this spot; we like that Haggas is a shrewd conditioner who is good at spotting horses; and we also like that she’s 15-1 on the morning line. We expect that number to be lower by post time, as bettors are finally catching on to the superiority of European turf runners, but we nevertheless expect to get a square price on Spirit of Bermuda, and we will consequently play her to win. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 9, $40 to win on 10-Spirit of Bermuda.
Woodbine, Race 9, 5:39 pm ET
Grade 1 Summer Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, 2-Year-Olds
The Summer Stakes drew a field of nine 2-year-old colts. The favorite is 4-Albahr who -- you guessed it -- is a Godolphin homebred trained by Charlie Appleby. He comes into this race off four excellent starts in England this spring and summer, and is the likeliest winner of the race, and probably the likeliest winner of the day. But he is a short price on the morning line, 7/5, and will likely be shorter at post time, probably something on the order of 3/5. We generally do not make win bets on horses even money or less, so we will play Albahr in the exacta, with 1-Dripping Gold, a Shug McGaughey runner who was quite impressive winning a maiden race on the turf at Saratoga on August 7. He is not in the same class as the favorite -- he’s not even in the same area code -- but he does appear good enough to run second. We will play Albahr and Dripping Gold in the exacta, in that order. The bet: Woodbine, Race 9, $30 exacta, 4 (Albahr) with 1 (Dripping Gold).
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.