Garrity's Sunday Stakes picks three races on closing day at Kentucky Downs, likes two Euro imports on the turf
It’s closing day at Kentucky Downs, and though the results there during the first five days of the six-day meet have been somewhere between maddening and inscrutable, we are taking another swing at the turf action in Franklin, Kentucky. We have three plays there today, all in stakes, and we expect firm going in all of them. Let’s go.
Kentucky Downs, Race 7, 4:41 pm ET
$500,000 Ainsworth Stakes, 6 ½ furlongs, Turf, 2-Year-Old Fillies
A dozen juvenile fillies line up for the Ainsworth. Favored 12-Lady Danae is thoroughly legitimate, as her lone career start, a win in a maiden turf sprint on August 13, was excellent, but she looks like she is going to be overbet, and therefore an underlay, so we are looking elsewhere.
We like 11-Cheerupsleepyjean. She’s a French-bred filly who has been running in Europe, and who comes off a pair of third-place finishes in stakes races at the Curragh in Ireland and the Royal Ascot meeting in England. She starts for Mark Casse, who is good with Euro imports, and will be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, who won three races yesterday. We will bet her to win at 10-1. The bet: Kentucky Downs, Race 7, $35 to win on 11-Cheerupsleepyjean.
Kentucky Downs, Race 8, 5:15 pm ET
$500,000 Nelson’s Green Brier Whiskey Music City Stakes, 6 ½ furlongs, Turf, 3-Year-Old Fillies
3-Year old fillies, twelve of them, go in the Music City. We are taking a shot with one who is lightly raced, and a giant price: it’s 2-Pathetique, who has run just twice, both on turf, finishing far back in a spring in her career debut, and then winning her next, in wire-to-wire fashion, at Saratoga on July 24. We think that last race, in which Pathetique broke her maiden, was quite good, but what we like even more is that she has a good chance to get the early lead here, as the field is comprised primarily of slow-breaking types, and that could put her in a spot that has fared quite well this week at Kentucky Downs: setting the pace while running very comfortable early fractions. This is a gamble, but Pathetique has a shot, we think, and the potential reward will be ample, as she’s 30-1 on the morning line. We will bet her to win and to place. The bets: Kentucky Downs, Race 8, $30 to win/$10 to place on 2-Pathetique.
Kentucky Downs, Race 9, 5:50 pm ET
$550,000 Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon Stakes, 1 5/16 miles, Turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
The final stakes race of the brief Kentucky Downs meeting is the Ladies Marathon, which like the other stakes on the card drew a full field of twelve. We’re all in on 5-La Lune, who ships in from England for trainer Ed Vaughan. She won a Group 3 over there, showing an affinity for firm turf, which she will get today. She is 5-1 on the morning, but will likely be a bit shorter by post time, as bettors are starting to recognize the superiority of European turf runners; we will bet her to win anyway. The bet: Kentucky Downs, Race 9, $50 to win on 5-La Lune.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.