Maiden America Wednesday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks 2yo races at Saratoga, with the Bolton Landing Stakes
Kimari, winning the 2019 running of Saratoga's Bolton Landing Stakes.NYRA / Chelsea Durand

Maiden America Wednesday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks 2yo races at Saratoga, with the Bolton Landing Stakes

First post is 2:15 pm EDT.

Maiden America 08.18.21

Hooptie Handicapper

Email hooptiehandicapper@gmail.com

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Before tackling today, I have to point out that Hidden Connection, the choice for the fifth race yesterday, just missed the track record by .02 seconds. To put that in perspective here are the record times for five and a half furlongs around the country.

Track records.
Track records.RT

102.21 puts him in tall company

Let’s cruise up 87 north and swing into Saratoga today because in the 3rd race, we’re going to have a six furlong race for 2yos. Of the nine runners in this, six have had at least one race experience and none of them have had that great a race, so let’s look at the three without experience. 7-Call Sign Charlie (9/2) is a daughter of Mission Impazible who is 13% with first time starters, yet they have all produced Equibase numbers greater than the experienced racers today. Her works have been pedestrian, so to make a win bet, is a stretch. We’ll see. 2-Sea Pines (6/1) is out of freshman sire Connect, who has fourteen fillies foaled that are racing with three of them winning at first asking, 21%. Except for one :48.8 work, the remainder have been average. She’ll hit the board today, which position is a mystery. My choice is going to be 9-Monshun, a daughter of Unified and granddaughter of Flatter. Every time she went in the gate to work out, she’s had blow out figures of :47.9 & :47.4. The one experienced horse in this race that can be a contender is 4-Morning Matcha (2/1) who debuted on the Monmouth slop with poor results, then came to Saratoga at this level on July 21 and finished third, scoring a 75 Equibase figure. This is a 79 rated race, so for her to improve in her third race may be a stretch.

The 5th race is for two year old fillies and will be decided at eight and a half furlongs on the turf. If it switches to dirt, 7-Lemieux (6/5) will be the bet, if it stays on turf, let’s see who’s likely. Mike Maker is 17% with 2yo’s this season and he’ll be saddling 1-Decree Of Love (5/1) with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. Decree is out of Declaration Of War, who is 0fer with first time fillies, yet this one may be different. Her workouts have been stellar, with a 1:00.8 from the gate in late July. Maker/Gaffalione 22% together and with a grandpa of Medaglia d’Oro, she has a punchers chance. For Gainesway, Bill Mott, a 17% 2yo trainer this season, is debuting 2-Shine (6/1) who is out of Jimmy Creed and Silver Charm. She’s had several 12er works, although none past four furlongs. Jimmy Creed has yet to produce a first winner filly, so she’ll be a pass. Chad Brown has 8-Vagaries (2/1) today and based on what I can tell from her works, if Chad Brown’s name wasn’t attached to this filly, she’d be way more than 2/1. That said, her daddy, Lope de Vega, is a kick ass sire, with 60% wins for maiden fillies and 47% overall for first timers. 6-Highly Devauxted (8/1) with a name like that, who else is likely to train her than Cherie DeVeaux? Any time you have Luis Saez on a new 2yo, you have to raise an eyebrow. This will be the sire’s, Unified, first filly to start and she has been working well for this debut with four 12er’s, including a :47.6 from the gate on August 6. She’ll be a player today. Shug debuts 4-Gun Boat (7/2) with Jose in the irons, where they are a 17% team. Her sire, War Front, is a 10% winner on first time fillies and Shug has a 25% win rate with War Front fillies on turf at today’s distance. Gun Boat is a tough call given her works have been ok and nothing eye-popping. I’m going with Chad in this and that Lope De Vega sire.

We have the $120K Bolton Landing Stakes for 2yos in the 9th race that is going five and a half furlongs on the turf. Statistically, 2yos leaving special weight company and going into a stakes race, are one for fifteen with one race experience and four of nine with two races in their past. Two-year-olds who have a stakes race are one for nine and if they have two races experience, they are zero for three. Overall, which we only track two and three year olds, horses who go from stakes to stakes, are five of twenty seven and three of those have two races experience, while the other two have three races. Horses that leave an msw race and go to a stakes race are five of fifty with four having two races experience and one having just one race. That one winner with an msw to stakes race winner is a filly named Elm Drive, which I have written about before, and she scored a 82 Equibase figure in her previous race and smoked a 93 in the Sorrento. There are three in this race that could have that type of race today and they are 4- Flip My Id (8/1), 9-Chi Town Lady (8/1) and 8-Fulminate (7/2). None of these three carry the same lineage as Elm Drive. Notwithstanding the last three mentioned and based solely on statistical data, our contenders are 10-Landslid (50/) who has three races and yet to win one, so toss, and 5-Poppy Flower (5/2) who is my choice. Poppy Flower is out of Lea who hails from a dam out of Galileo. Lea, her dad, ran second to Liam’s Map in the BC mile, second to Mondialiste in the Woodbine Mile, won the Hal’s Hope twice, the Donn once and ran third in the Dubai Cup to Prince Bishop and California Chrome. All in all, Lea amassed a 19-7-6-3 record for $2.4M. Poppy Flower has a far superior breeding to the rest in this field and should take this.

Happy Hunting 😊

Breeze figs
Breeze figsRT

*BreezeFigs Defined

Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.

There are four Groups:

G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;

G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;

G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;

G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors

Class Edge High

  • OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March

Class Edge Good

  • OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April

  • EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May

Class Edge Moderate

  • OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June

Class Edge High

  • OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March

Class Edge Good

  • OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April

  • EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May

Class Edge Moderate

  • OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June

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