Maiden America Tuesday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks three 2yo races at Colonial Downs
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Maiden America Tuesday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks three 2yo races at Colonial Downs

The first post at Colonial Downs is 1:45 pm EDT.

Maiden America 08.17.21

Hooptie Handicapper

Email hooptiehandicapper@gmail.com

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For a funky Tuesday, the gentry folks with their 2yo thoroughbreds are coming out from the hunt country, and varied areas nearby, to debut their boys and girls.

We will begin at the beginning with 1-Soft Touch (2-1) in the 1st race at Colonial Downs. She's a Godolphin-bred and -owned filly out of Uncle Mo. She mated to Seeking The Gold’s daughter, Gold Velvet. Gold Velvet foaled 1-Soft Touch (2-1) who, in, addition to having regal breeding from mom and dad, her grandpa is Storm Cat, who came from Secretariat. I ask you, my friends, do you think the Godolphin folks covet this filly, or is that too much of a rhetorical question? 6-Tipharah (30/1) sparked a Group 1 breeze test and in her last two races cannot seem to put anything together, finishing sixth in mid-May and eighth at the end of July. Recently, she looked like a Mohaymen filly working out twice at :48. Her genealogy is out of Tapit and Street Sense, so distance and speed should be her game and the switch to turf with the one mile length should help. She will get Lasix today, so that could have been the warp in the womb. If she hovers near this price, jump all over it. 2-Amazon Queen (4/1) is out of Kantharos, a son of Lion Heart. Her Grandpa is Langfuhr, a broodmare sire we track. She has had a race at five furlongs carrying today’s weight of 119lbs, the exception being this is going three more furlongs. In her debut, a horse named Check The Grade bolted out to the lead by six lengths hitting the first fractions in :20.50 & :44.57 before gassing out late. Meanwhile, Amazon Queen got a late start and ended up closing late, so today’s extra distance and same jockey plays well for her. Graham Motion debuts a filly for Catherine Parker 4- Sparkle Blue (5/2) out of Hard Spun. Her mamma is Silk N Sapphire, nee Smart Strike, and she has had a gate work, a 1:01 breeze. Her half-sister is Colonial Flag, a daughter of Pleasant Tap who went 13/4-2-2 on turf for $322K. This race is a coin flip, and the Godolphin filly seems like the logical choice. However, logic is not going to make us rich, and I believe Tipharah is working out much better because of the jockey change and she is every bit as well-heeled as the rest. I’ll take the long bomber at 30/1

Bal A Bali debuted at the monied area of Rio - Gavea, to much fanfare as he reeled off three wins to start his career and 11 of 12 while watching the surf hit the beautiful beach at the Pedra de Gavea. Look at that stunning spot and ask why would the owners want to move this beautiful boy to America, whose lineage goes back as far as Man O’ War? I’ll tell you why. Security and Dinheiro. They had a good thing and did not want the locos there to grab him and do the ransom gig. So, they knew the big coin was breeding in the U.S. and they packed him up and ran like a thief in the night to race him at Santa Anita and Del Mar. While there, he won 4 of 14 times, in total amassing $1.3M. He has been a breeding machine since and today we will see his son 1-Heavenly Trip (9/5) run in the 3rd race at Colonial Downs. This will mark his third attempt to find the winner's circle. Brittany Russell vanned this gelding down 95 to his new digs as he gets the first taste of turf racing today. Heavenly has been a game fellow getting the lead or near it and not closing the deal, so today’s surface will play to his daddy’s side. 2-Playing Gold (12/1) is coming out of the two spot and will to try to stay with Heavenly while shooting out of his right will be 3-Leoville (7/2). 4-Swift Dancer (3/1) will have a say in who gets to the front as this son of Midnight Storm and grandson of Successful Appeal makes his second start today. West Point Thoroughbreds brings their gelding 6-Bosshog Them Dukes (10/1) out of Street Boss and Deputy Minister is a full brother to Pegasus turf fourth place finisher Social Paranoia, so look for him to make some noise today. Heavenly Trip is the horse to beat today, and Swift Dancer is going to fight him for it. Bosshog Them Dukes will surprise for a price.

Maclean’s Music is a sire that has a 14% first time winning record and 7-Ocean Size (6/1) may have a hand in bolstering that rate in the 5th race today. With her under 12er from the gate work of :46.2 a week ago, she was taking the bit and eager to go. This is Julianna Brem’s second attempt with the Maclean’s Music/Jane Says conjoining as Fieldstone, the 3yo still in training, is her brother. First-year sire Connect, out of Curlin nee Holy Bull, is hitting at 13% wins and sends daughter 10-Hidden Connection (4/1) to the gate today. Trained by Bret Calhoun, she’s had three 12’er’s, a :48.8 breeze and a :47.8 breeze from the gate. There is a most impressive work of :59.8 on July 25th at Colonial. Our friends at St. Simon Place may be sitting on a powder keg with this young lady. Paco Lopez will guide Speedway Stables 9-Chardonnay (6/1) for these five and a half furlongs, and she has exquisite breeding from Candy Ride and Shayjollie, who is out of Indian Charlie. Chardonnay has one 12er, a :48.2 breeze on July 27th and two other mild breezes at five furlongs. Hidden Connection over Ocean Size is going to be my choice in this race today.

Breeze Figs* for Tuesday, August 17, 2021

Breeze figs.
Breeze figs.RT

*BreezeFigs Defined

Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.

There are four Groups:

G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;

G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;

G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;

G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors

Class Edge High

  • OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March

Class Edge Good

  • OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April

  • EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May

Class Edge Moderate

  • OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June

Class Edge High

  • OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March

Class Edge Good

  • OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April

  • EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May

Class Edge Moderate

  • OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June

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