Horse Racing: RT questions results of Tuesday's 1st at Colonial Downs, picks Wednesday Steve Asmussen races
Maiden America 8.04.21
This is important and I would appreciate all help getting this data to the right people. Please forward this article, re-tweet, re-post, or whatever it is you can do to get the word out.
Fixing a horse race has been around long before I was born and hopefully will not be around after I am gone. Unlike many on various social media platforms, I am not one to cry foul; however, yesterday’s first race at Colonial Downs was so obvious that even a kid cutting school and getting to Churchill Downs at 15 years of age in the mid-70’s and having the kindness of a stranger explain the racing form could see that something was amiss. This one was so blatant, so in your face, so profane, that it must be called attention to.
Bandfromthebar ran in the first race at Colonial Downs on Aug. 3, 2021.
This was a five furlong race that was run on a dirt surface
Bandfromthebar won the race by jumping to the lead immediately and not ceding way. The jockey, Denis Arujo, barely had to work at getting the horse to run. He took the crop to him twice
This race was completed in 57.6 seconds or 11.52 seconds per furlong
Bandfromthebar had one workout at that distance on July 27, which he completed in 65.6 seconds.
All other workouts of Bandfromthebar were at three and four furlong lengths and none of them equaled to <12 seconds per furlong
Both the sire and dam of Bandfromthebar won their respective debut races.
The sire, Bandbox, won his debut, on turf, at 5.5 furlongs in 62.73 seconds on or 11.40 seconds per furlong
The dam, Tiz Elusive, won her debut race at 6 furlongs in 75.03 seconds, or 12+ seconds per furlong
A horse does not shave 8 seconds from a breeze workout to a race. The assumption of six lengths per second would create a 48 length disparity. Secretariat won the Belmont by 31 lengths, to give you a matter of perspective.
A 10/1 morning line horse with the workouts shown below does not drop to 9/2 in a normal race on a normal day.
Watch the race from Aug. 3 that Bandfromthebar just won. You will see how effortlessly Arujo took that horse from gate to wire – as if he knew.
Arujo’s two crop hits to Bandfromthebar were cursory in nature and seemingly an afterthought
Below are the past performances/data for the sire and dam as well as the workouts for Bandfromthebar. Review the workout times, the sire/dam past performances and then tell me if you would put your $500 to win on that first time starter with such lousy results during training.
I would say no way.
Onward to today and I’ll start the day as the Asmussen watch day by handicapping every race that Steve Asmussen has a horse entered in. For those unaware, Steve Asmussen tied Dale Baird’s North American training record with Pickens yesterday. That gave Steve 9,445 wins. We’ll keep an eye on which horse will break the record.
Today, he has two entries and they are both at Saratoga
Saratoga Race 2 - $20K Maiden Claiming
3yo’s↑ going seven furlongs
Steve has 5 – Demuro (10/1) in this race and it appears that he may not win this without some conjugal help from the jockey colony. 7 – Cousin Andrew (4/5) is the one to beat as he drops from msw to mcl for the Chad Brown barn and if he doesn’t win, 4 – Leading West (5/2) can take this, or ‘Luis on the lead’ with 6 – Mach One (5/1) going from turf to dirt. Demuro is not absent of talent as seen below in his breeze fig’s* and since his last two races were at Monmouth, where Gerardo Corrales could not use the crop to inspire him, his chances are good. He’s had two solid five furlong works since his last, so we’ll hope for the best.
Personally, this is a pass race.
Saratoga Race 8 – The $120K Shine Again Stakes
Fillies and mares 4yo’s↑ NW Stakes who have not won a stakes race in 2021, other than state bred, going seven furlongs
If our man Steve is going to pass Mr. Baird today, Casual may be the answer.
You see, 1 – Bayerness (8/5) with Luis on the lead and 2 – Aunt Kat (7/5) along with 6 – Whispering Pines (12/1) are going to go at it tooth and nail from the jump. When you see the clock going cha-ching at :22.3 or less, then :45.5 or less, and 4 – Casual (7/2) has laid off the pace, yet is near, then, ka-boom, he’ll grind the stretch and win. That said, both Ortiz brothers have a mount in this race and if they connive to send Irad’s 3 – Bronx Beauty (10/1) to lay off whilst Whispering Pines does a beat down on Bayerness and Aunt Kat, then Casual will have to contend with him. If the fractions get hotter than previously mentioned and Causal is on the lead, it’s not going to be Mr. Asmussen’s day.
Happy Hunting 😊
*BreezeFigs Defined (for more details)
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June