Maiden America Tuesday: The Hooptie Handicapper picks 2yo races at Colonial Downs, sees future stakes winner
Maiden America 08.03.01
Hooptie Handicapper
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Yesterday, in case any of you did not see it, our selection, Princess Palmer, sent off at 17/1, appeared to have gotten a hose call at the wire. She looked to have prevailed and unfortunately, the stewards saw it differently. My feed did not show the determining photo and I still have yet to have seen it. She paid $11.20 for the place bet, so the race was profitable, yet felt sallowed. In the 7th at Colonial, Continentalcongres was steadied at the turn and the pace got away from her. She finished 4th. Wow Whata Summer did exactly as expected in the 8th race by pressing the pace and had nothing left when needed, lobbing back into 4th. In the Tom Ridge Stakes at Presque, my choice, 7-Del Griffith, had Pablo Morales listed as his jockey and ended up being replaced, so I backed off the bet. So, $18 bet yesterday, $22.40 returned. +3.60
Two races from Colonial today.
Colonial Downs Race 1 - $20K Maiden Claimers
2yo’s going five furlongs
Is 2nd time Lasix, a return trip after just a week, and a return to dirt going to be the panacea for the Munoz barn's 3-Playing Gold (8/5)? I say no, because he worked against 5-Chaotic Tempo (6/1) Chaotic Tempo scorched Playing Gold on July 19. Caveat Emptor folks with Playing Gold. The better horse, and my pick, is Chaotic Tempo. 2-Agent Stone (3/1), nor the others, have a chance against these two today.
Colonial Downs Race 3 - $50K Maiden Special
2yo’s going five furlongs
Below is a spreadsheet I use to track maiden races. To the far right, I use color codes to determine which horses are dropping in class (yellow … and there are none here), and I use an identifier to show horses that are on its third race (red).
I suggest using this sort of tool to track the kinds of races that you enjoy handicapping. Now you can see that, in this case, 78 times thus far, a horse has twice run, then dropped from msw to mcl, and 8 of those won, or 10%. This is of great use to give you a micro version of a macro snapshot of how the horses compare. By viewing it this way, it allows you to put your minds eye into the four who haven’t raced - their workout patterns and owner/trainers intent, and the two whom have raced; breaking them down until you have a feel for how the race will evolve. Once set up, this spreadsheet takes you less than five minutes to put the data in it. It's very simple, very easy, and it makes concise, comparative data. If you would like help setting one up, email me at the above address.
If you are a novice, this is very simple – from left to right. Horse number, track name and race $ and class (in this case it’s a $20K Maiden Claiming) distance in furlongs, surface (dirt) last race $ or if it’s a first time starter, last race class smsw = state bred maiden race, msw is open maiden company, distance, surface, last finish and Equibase score (x represents highest Equibase score of the group last time and if applicable, I use a z for 2nd best) and number of races.
6 – Tejano Twist (5/2) is a fourth time starter and in his third race, he was favored and dogged it, garnering only a 70 Equibase score. Third time starters are akin to the sophomore jinx in sports – as in Tua or Lamar Jackson. Both had terrific rookie seasons and then a so/so 2nd year as expectations were much higher. Then, they figure out the game and their talent surfaces. Horses are the exact same way in their first three or four races. They'll have a dog race in there somewhere. It usually happens in the third race. That is exactly why Tejano Twist will not be denied today. He will win and go on to do as his daddy (Practical Joke) and both grandaddy’s (Into Mischief and Cuvee) did, win Graded Stakes races.
Recap
Colonial Downs
Race 1 – Chaotic Tempo
Race 3 – Tejano Twist