Monday Maiden America: The Hooptie Handicapper picks 2yo races at Colonial Downs and a Presque Isle longshot
Maiden America 08.02.01
On Friday, things got insurmountably sour. In the 1st at Saratoga, Sweet Sugar Baby got smoked by Laoban’s Legacy and placed, paying $4.20. In the 3rd at Saratoga, Senson got to the lead early and opted to throw in the towel, digressing to a 58 Equibase figure getting 3rd place cash. Then there was Beckynkari at Ellis in the 3rd. She is likely one of those horses that works out great and flops on game day. She ran 7th.
Today, we have three, 2yo races from Colonial Downs and a long shot in the $75K Tom Ridge Stakes at Presque Isle.
Colonial Downs Race 2 - $50K Maiden Special
Virginia Bred 2yo fillies going 5.5 furlongs
The morning line favorites in this race are #3 Determined Star (7/2) and #1 Circle Home (3/1) based on the strength of their workouts. Candidly, none of the workouts or races from the nine entrants are noteworthy, so with equal footing, I’m thinking this is a jockey’s race. Below are the best jockeys, percentage wise, in this race,
Interestingly, according to Equibase, Sheldon Russell is 0 -7 in sprints at Colonial Downs. The 7% they state in this grid is an outlier to me. #5 Bonnie Bluetooth, #7 Carolina Sun (20/1), #6 Luna Belle (15/1) and #4 Heart Light (12/1) all raced against each other at this track and distance. That was a 14 horse field, and the favorite was 3/1, so their odds do not reflect that race. Of those four experienced horses, two of them held interest after some research - Bonnie Bluetooth & Carolina Sun. They both have siblings and parents who have increased their Equibase scores in their second outing. If you eliminate Russell’s snakebit sprint season here, that leaves Bonnie Bluetooth to add in the mix. Through last week, the track was playing to speed in sprints on the outer turf with a C- for the rail, B- for the middle and B+ for the outside. That takes us to either #8 Princess Palmer (10/1), who has shown a proclivity for getting an early jump and #9 Hollywood Walk (4/1) who is unraced and just clipped a :36.5 and :49.8 from the gate. Princess Palmer has yet to face restricted Virginia Breds, so with Jevian Toledo hitting 25% at the distance and surface, and the early speed with an outside draw, I’m going to be playing her to W/P and exacta her over Bonnie Bluetooth and Carolina Sun.
Colonial Downs Race 7 – The $100K Keswick Stakes
Virginia Bred 2yo fillies going five furlongs on the outer turf
I have #1 Determined Truth (5/1), #4 Rambert (4/1), and #7 Continentalcongres (10/1) all circled for this race. #3 Cavalier Cupid (5/2) the favorite, just hit an 85 Equibase score in a $50K msw race in her bow at Colonial on July 19, and is the deserving favorite, yet that was against state rivals and some in this race have faced tougher. Determined Truth just scored a 78 Equibase score against open company on July 9 at Pimlico and fought a hard battle with eventual winner Hicktown. That was a great learning lesson for her and she just worked a 1:01.2 on July 23. Rambert managed to get into it with Cavalier Cupid on July 19 here and we’ll look for that learning effort and an increase in Equibase number to provide vengeance. My choice is going to be first Lasix user #7 Continentalcongres, who has yet to win a race. However, with new blinkers and facing lesser competition than on the NYRA circuit, I’ll look for him to get it done.
Colonial Downs Race 8 – The $100K Hickory Tree Stakes
Va Bred 2yo’s going five furlongs on the outer turf
#10 Evan Harlan (5/2) ships in from Belmont where he debuted for Graham Motion and ended up posting a 78 Equibase score against stiffer competition than these horses have faced. That race was on June 20, and he soon returned to Faisig and put in three workouts. All three of those were very pedestrian in nature and given Faisig’s training center is synthetic, he should have performed better. The risk/reward ratio is just not worth it. #3 Wow Whata Summer (9/2) raced on July 20 at the track, and ended up getting DQ’d into the winner’s circle. He just worked a :48.8 on July 30, so he came out of the race well and should be a player. #4 Mr. Jefferson (6/1) may prove interesting as a first time starter. He’s had a 5 furlong and a 6 furlong workout as well as two other gate workouts. #6 Roll Dem Bones (10/1) gets the benefit of second Lasix today, so he should have an extra spring in his step. Given the medication, Roll Dem Bones was going to be my first choice today. However, Wow Whata Summer was bumped around at the turn and the DQ was justified; what makes him my choice is the :11.97 final furlong run. Feargal Lynch will stay near the pace and cut this guy loose on the turn.
In the Tom Ridge Stakes at Presque Isle Downs, I like the Candy Ride gelding who shipped in from Woodbine, #7 Del Griffith (8/1)
Race 2 – Princess Palmer over Bonnie Bluetooth and Carolina Sun
Race 7 – Continentalcongres
Race 8 – Wow Whata Summer
Race 5 – Del Griffith
Happy Hunting 😊