Maiden America Friday: The Hoop Tea Handicapper picks 2yos at Saratoga, Pimlico, Ellis Park, + weekend stakes
Since this is my last article this week, my selections for the Stakes at The Spa this weekend -
$350K G1 Vanderbilt – Mischievous Alex over Whitmore, Firenze Fire and Three Technique
$600K G1 Jim Dandy – Essential Quality (the price will not be good)
$250K G2 Bowling Green – Shamrocket with the upset
Yesterday washed out with the Saratoga rains, so that was a no play. Today, we have three plays. One from Saratoga, one from Pimlico and one from Ellis…weather permitting for each.
Saratoga Race 1 – $85K Maiden Special
NY Bred 2yo fillies going six furlongs
As we see, four of today’s entrants were breeze tested* with #4 Trinity Titoli (5/1) making a Group 1 status. Thus far, Group 1 tested 2yos debuting are 6/26 or 23%. Group 2’s are 14/64 or 22% and Group 3’s are 7/60 or 12%. That said, Trinity Titoli has not been burning up the workouts in the morning and it appears that she will fall into the 77% of this category. Laoban’s Legacy (2/1) is a head scratcher at 2/1 due to his dull workouts and none of the six past four furlongs. #3 Sweet Sugar Baby (8/1) & #2 One Track Mine (6/1) return from the same race on July 1 and by my account, both had learned quite a bit from that race with One Track Mine being held back in the beginning and Sweet Sugar Baby had horses pass her, only to get focused in the stretch and pass them back. Either one of those two are going to with this today or #6 Curly Girl (20/1). Curly Girl has had three workouts from the gate at five furlongs since June 24, showing the seriousness of this trainer to prepare his 2yo for a six furlong debut. I’’m going to use #1 Succulent (12/1) underneath given her one race experience.
Update – One Track Mine and Trinity Titoli are scratched.
With the main track listed as sloppy, I am taking Sweet Sugar Baby to W/P and Exacta Sweet Sugar Baby over Curly Girl. That will be the end of today’s plays from Saratoga.
Pimlico Race 3 - $46K Maiden Special
2yo fillies going 5.5 furlongs
Baltimore was doused with rain yesterday and thus far, two entrants have been scratched. The track is listed as fast and firm, so let’s go.
Yes, the public will be enamored with Brittany and Sheldon Russell’s first time starter #3 Murph (5/2). However, if #2 Senson (10/1) or #7 Petition Prayer (8/1) stays at 3/1 or greater, bet him. I will be. They are is the only horses with race day experience and both posted a 60 Equibase score. With a projected 17-21 point average improvement, they will score above par (72) for this race, and as the axiom goes, "one race is worth three workouts." Claudio Gonzalez has #5 Candy Fable (7/2) entered in this and with Claudio, you never know.
She has had only one gate workout and one at five furlongs. Use underneath.
Petition Prayer got off to a slow start last time and was coming strong at the end, gaining eleven lengths on the leader, yet every horse (4/7) from that race, whom has subsequently been sent out, have all returned dull efforts. I’ll go with Senson today.
I’ll toss in a race that looks interesting –
Ellis Park Race 3 - $51K Maiden Special
2yo fillies going 8.5 furlongs on the turf
Having never seen a horse being worked five straight times at five furlongs before their debut, I will take a W/P chance on #5 Beckynkari (10/1), a Mike Maker trained filly out of 4/4 winner Mastery. This is Mastery’s first offspring to race, so it’ll be interesting.
Saratoga Race 1 - #3 Sweet Sugar Baby
Pimlico Race 3 - #2 Senson
Ellis Park Race 3 - #5 Beckynkari
Have a Fun Weekend
Happy Hunting 😊
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June