Maiden America Friday: Hoop Tea's Hooptie Handicapper picks 2yo races at Saratoga and Ellis Park
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Today we have three, two year-old races. One is at Saratoga and two are from Ellis Park.
Saratoga Race 1 - $80K Maiden Special Weight
5.5 furlong race for 2yo’s who did not reach their reserve at auction or sold for $45K or less.
Of the nine entries, we have breeze figs* for seven horses in this race.
#8 Buckingham Prince (7/5) is the only experienced racer in this with two races to date. For all you stats lovers out there, according to our database, two year-olds racing for their third time have won at a 33% clip. Bear in mind, we have an exceedingly low sample since we just started this at the beginning of the year. Overall, Group 2 horses (which comprise the majority of this field) have won at a 22% rate for first starters and Group 3’s have won 14% of the time in its first race. Buckingham Prince last posted a 76 Equibase score when just getting nipped at the wire last out at Ellis Park. Given his :48.5 work since shipping to The Spa, a repeat of that effort is eminent. #9 Big Scully (10/1) is going to be bet down due to the amount of pundits out there who seem enamored by this gelded son of Cross Traffic. He’s not for me since his dam, Rebirth, has produced seven other foals and only one cracked a 70 Equibase number at first asking. If Buckingham Prince gets beat, it’ll be by either #2 King Of Sting (8/1) or #7 Stolen Base (4/1), the only two that have worked five furlongs. Unfortunately, both have turned in awful, and only, works at the track.
I’m going with the experience and Buckingham Prince in this.
Ellis Park Race 7 - $52K Allowance
2yo’s NW2 going six furlongs
This could be interesting with Steve Asmussen knocking on the door of Dale Baird’s record of 9445 wins to become North America’s winningest trainer, he has entered #1 Seize The Treasure (9/5) today. There is one caveat and it’s this- his two races have been on turf and today he switches to dirt. Asmussen 21% switching from turf to dirt and a good 1:01.4 work on July 6 looks promising … but, hmmm. #2 Land Remembered (9/2) won in his debut, his only race, on synthetic at Arlington and switched to Reeve McGaughey’s barn where he has put in four preps for this race – two at Keeneland and two at Arlington. Based on Keeneland’s overtly fast times, and Arlington’s synthetic, he is a pass for me. #3 Deal Go Down (4/1) a son of Cairo Prince, will be pressing the early pace, along with the two above. I’m going with a not recommended play of taking a maiden claimer moving into allowance company, #7 Mr. Halftime (8/1) who just torched the stretch at Churchill going :12.05 in his final furlong. With all of the speed up front and every horse stretching out, Brian Hernandez will have a lot of pace to close in on.
Ellis Park Race 8 - $51K Maiden Special
2yo’s going 5.5 furlongs on turf
Considering that good mud runners make good turf horses, and his 1:00 gate work in the slop, along with a :48 in the mud, #1 Mondo Gold (6/1) looks like a live play. #2 Ignitis (9/2) just ran a :47.4 in sloppy condition, so count him in. #12 Newt (15/1) has been working forwardly with three gate works and #11 Red Knobs (20/1) has been working steadily at EP and CD. Again, I am not wild about the Keeneland efforts with the rest, so with these four, I will exacta and trifecta play them. I will likely put a win/place bet on Mondo Gold.
Happy Hunting 😊
*BreezeFigs Defined
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June