Maiden America Independence Day, 2021
Hooptie Handicapper
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Yesterday was like the month of March where we went in like a lion and went out like a lamb. We scored well with our first choice at Pimlico hitting a $15.50/$5.00 payoff. In the next two races, the gambling goddesses managed to see to it that both horses get a poor start. Whereas they both put forth a gallant effort, the only late charge we ended up with was one to the bankroll. The day did end up becoming profitable.
There are two races today on the ticket and one is a personal favorite that I have been looking forward to. We will start with this race.
He is number #4 Slightly Frosted (15/1) running in the 6th at Woodbine. This is a $128K Maiden Special Weight race for 2yo’s going five furlongs. He actually came blowing right past me when I was standing next to the rail and he is smashing in beauty and stature. He was a jaw dropper in looks and size. Check out the perked up ears and his fluid stride. His workouts have been excellent as well. It's incredible to think that he's 15/1 on the morning line. His auction price of only $42K is because he’s been gelded. A win today would easily settle that figure and it would not surprise if that happened. #2 Summer Sunset (4/1) recently clocked two sharp gate works, a :47.8 and :35.6 and gets excellent jockey Emma-Jayne Watson. His sire, Summer Front, is a black type winner of $1.07M with five black type foals including Ete Indian, so his lineage has success. His mom is out of Elusive Quality, so he should get a nice jump and has been working forwardly for this debut. #6 Twenty Four Mamba (2/1) along with the aforementioned Slighly Frosted and #1 I’m a Chi Too (12/1) are the only five non Canadian bred horses in this group. In the case of Twenty Four Mamba, he debuted on April 29 at Churchill Downs at low odds in the slop and ran a 74 Equibase figure. Returning a month later at the same track and one half furlong longer, he ran a poor race lacking a late response. Since we know that good mud runners make good turf runners, perhaps the change of surface from dirt to synthetic might be just the ticket for this guy. His workouts indicate this as a strong possibility. Mark Casse/Rafael Hernandez a 28% proposition together. #5 First Empire (3/1) is out of juvenile champion Classic Empire, winner of the BC Juvenile and the horse I will likely keep in an exotic bet based on its sire’s fast start and his progeny’s abilities to get the same. Marc Casse trained and Patrick Husbands ridden, we will likely see him press and close late. #3 Coo Bird (6/1) is going to be my choice. He returns after two weeks and an abysmal start and a killer finish in his debut, garnering an 80 Equibase score. This son of Klimt was flying in the stretch after hopping at the start. After that learning lesson, he'll be nearer the pace today.
Ellis Park Race 6 - $51K Maiden Special Weight
2yo Fillies going 5.5 furlongs on the turf
I suggest that we all dip into our wallets on this Independence Day and bet $2.00 to win on the #3 Our Lady Nelson who is trained by none other than John Hancock 😊
Actually this is a good horse with three gate works, which I really like to see, and one was a bullet in 1:01. Typically, where 2 year olds have their problems on debut is getting out of that gate. Looking at the breeze figs for the horses in this race and the experienced runners in this race, I'm going to take a pass on those because there is one that I do like and it's none of those. The horse I am going with is a Tom Amoss entry #4 Kneesnhips (8/1) who just worked three solid ones at CD, which would be bullets at Ellis. They are, from last to first, 1:01.6, 1:01.8 from the gate, and a :48 from the gate.
*BreezeFigs Defined
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June
Happy Hunting 😊