Garrity's Friday Stakes at Belmont: Picks for the 7th through 10th, including the 2-mile Gold Cup on turf
The good news is that Belmont Park has a terrific card on this Friday in early summer, with five stakes headlining an 11-race program. The bad news is that the weather has not cooperated: the rains came through Long Island overnight, leaving the main track, as of early this morning, muddy, and the turf course yielding. And there is a chance of more rain throughout the day,
But we are charging ahead anyway: we have four plays, all in late-afternoon stakes races. Let’s go.
Belmont Park, Race 7 4:07 pm ET
Grade 2 True North Handicap, 6 ½ furlongs, Dirt, 4 & Up
A field of seven lines up to sprint 6 ½ furlongs in the True North. We’d probably like 4-American Power at least a little bit on fast dirt, but we move him up in a big way in the mud, as he has controlling speed and a proven affinity for wet tracks. Look for this 6-year-old veteran to go right to the front, and never look back. We will bet him to win at 8-1. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 7, $35 to win on 4-American Power.
Belmont Park, Race 8, 4:40 pm ET
Grade 3 Bed O’ Roses Stakes, 7 furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
Eight older females were interred in the Bed O’ Roses, but two were late scratches, including 6-Chub Wagon, the morning line favorite. The defections leave a field of six, and a race with a vastly different complexion, especially considering that Chub Wagon was the likely pacesetter.
We like 5-Victim of Love, who comes into this off a smart win in the Vagrancy on May 8, which shows she’s in good form, and who has a perfect 2-for-2 career record on off tracks. She’s sharp, she will like the going, and in the smaller field, she is the controlling speed. Add these things up, and we are going to the window. Victim of Love is 7/2 on the morning line, but that was made before the scratches; we think she’ll be something like 9/5, which we think is a square price. We will bet her to win. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 5-Victim of Love.
Belmont Park, Race 9, 5:15 pm ET
Grade 2 New York Stakes, 1 ¼ miles, Turf, FIllies & Mares, 4 & Up
A good field of eleven turf females lines up for the New York Stakes. We like a price, in the form of 2-Virginia Joy, a 4-year-old filly who runs for trainer Chad Brown. She began her career in her native Germany, where she did pretty well, and she impressed in her U.S. debut, when she closed from far back to take an allowance race in April. This mile and a quarter distance is probably her best, but what we like about her most is the going: we’re expecting the turf at Belmont today to be quite soft, and her European form shows an affinity for that. Look for her to be in the rear early, but moving late; we will bet her to win at 10-1. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 9, $40 to win on 2-Virginia Joy.
Belmont Park, Race 10, 5:48 pm ET
Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup, 2 miles, Turf, 4 & Up
The Belmont Gold Cup is a rarity, a graded stakes run at two miles on turf. The distance is a test of stamina under any conditions, but over boggy ground, it will be even more so, as softer grass is more tiring for the horses to traverse. So we’re looking, among the nine who go to the starting gate here, for a horse who will be able to last the marathon distance.
The obvious pick would be Euro invader, and 8/5 morning line favorite, 8-Baron Samedi, who was last seen winning a Group 3 stakes in Ireland at a distance of 1 ¾ miles, but we’re looking elsewhere, for while he is a contender, he’s likely to be wildly overbet, perhaps even to even money or less off his 8/5 morning line price, and at that price, he’s an underlay, and a bet-against.
We like a big price, 1-So High, who has never run quite this far, but who has a pedigree, and a running style, that suggests he may thrive at the distance. He’s in good form, having finished a close fifth, just two lengths behind the winner, in the Grade 1 Man ‘O War Stakes at Belmont last month, and he has done well over softer going in the past. Is he a sure thing? No. But at a big price -- he’s 30-1 on the morning line, and may be even higher at post time -- we think he’s a good play. We will bet him to win. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 10, $40 to win on 1-So High.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.