Maiden America Thursday: Hoop Tea's Hooptie Handicapper picks races at Arlington Park
First post is 4:21 pm EDT.
With the entire eastern ½ of the US forecasted for rain, we are moving to my kinda town, Chicago, and Arlington Park for the 3rd & 5th races
Yesterday, the choice in the first at Delaware, #1 A Dangerous Guy, was not near dangerous and even less close to having a misdemeanor. He came out flat-footed from the gate and it was all downhill from there. The second choice, U Kant Whip It, was equally as bad, yet did not opt for Lasix, like the winner, Maryland Brando did, and it affected his outcome. Maryland Brando (the ml 9/5 fave), ended up running away with it. Oddly, Brando never really showed much in his workouts, so the lone Lasix guy took it.
For the longshot exacta in race 3 at Delaware Park, one of the choices, #2 Estilo Elegante, was a vet scratch.
Arlington Park Race 3 - $30K Maiden Special Weight
3yo↑ fillies and mares racing 8.25 furlongs
#3 Ready At Midnight (12/1) out of More Than Ready and stakes winner Midnight Watch, she competed twice as a two year old, benched from late November until April, brought back, ran even, then entered less than a month later, May 9, and posted a 79 Equibase score. That number is the second best in this field. She put in a solid middle move getting up to the leader at the ¾ mark and tired off. Today will be her eighth race, at a fourth different distance, and third different surface. She had a freshening on May 23 and the two times she’s hit a peak number, she bounced. #2 Naval Laughter (4/1) is a 4yo filly out of Midshipman who debuted in the fall of her two year old season. She put in a game effort in the Churchill slop that day, getting off to a slow start and weaving her way into 3rd place. She’s been on the bench for 559 days, so evidently things went somewhat awry. Leading into today, she has progressively worked well.
#7 Maid Of Honor (3/1) is a 2020, $100K Keeneland filly out of Medaglia d’Oro who the connections at the time paid $250K to mate with Lovely Regina, a broodmare out of Deputy Minister. Her eight foals have done well with 71 starts and 15 wins, or 21%. ‘Maid holds the top two highest Equibase numbers of this field and switches from turf to synthetic. Look for her to be on or near the lead today, however, she seemingly folds whenever competition nears. If Declan Carroll rates her off the pace, her chances to win increase. #1 Perfect Diva (7/2) may be the lone speed and is coming off her highest Equibase score. Another filly coming from turf to synthetic, the connections recently moved her to the scorching hot Brittany Van Berg’s barn, where she is hitting 30% winners over the last 10 days. Brittany is also 50% from turf to synthetic and 37% with jockey Christopher Emigh. Late last year, ownership changed barns and it took her a couple of races before she started to show her best stride. I think today is no different. I am going with #2 Naval Laughter off the bench. Jose Lopez is in the irons and his production has picked up over the past ten days. When teamed with trainer Christopher Davis, they are a 36% win proposition. Finally, I am more of a fan taking a 4yo horse this time of year against 3yos when you feel they are comparable in skill level. That extra year of maturity makes a big difference.
Arlington Park Race 5 - $30K Maiden Special Weight
3yo’s↑ racing five furlongs on turf
Nine are entered today with five having multi race experience. Of those five, two are of interest, Group 1 tested, #6 Simple Logic (4/1) #5 Worththemoney (6/1) are The remainder have had their chances and have not done very much. #5 Worththemoney (6/1) is a 3yo colt out of Tiznow and R Frosty One, who had herself a solid campaign going 17/5-4-2 with a 4/1-0-0 turf record. As we know, Tiznow tends to breed longer distance runners, so if he does not get it done today, he’ll probably look to stretch out next time. That said, he had one race in his 2yo campaign, was benched for ½ year and returned on May 8 where he showed good early turn of foot before tiring down the stretch. Today he cuts back a furlong and moves to turf. He should be near the lead or on it. #1 Power Through (5/1). Starting in late March, he has had nine workouts and the last two have shown great improvement, clocking a :48.6 from the gate and a :48.6 breeze a week ago. Out of Temple City, whose foals have an 8% first time winning percentage, his dam, Radiant Rocket, has much better success first timers winning 1/4 and two of the other three have hit the board. He is a long striding horse at almost 26-feet, versus the average of 25-feet, so what will take him 115 strides to complete this journey, will take the average thoroughbred 120, giving him a five stride, or 120 feet advantage. Where a long stride seems to make the biggest difference thus far is if the horse stays on or near the lead and can use that extra push late.
I am really liking the way #6 Simple Logic (4/1) has been working coming into this race, nailing a :46.8 last time, May 25, and a :47.6 on May 6. He had two races in his 2yo season and made a good middle move passing horses and getting to within a head of the leader before fighting for the second place finish. That was an excellent learning experience for this colt whose sire, Maclean’s Music, has 21 black type winners. Since the distance is this short and his workouts have been blazing at four furlongs, look for him to get a substantial lead and take it home.
Happy Hunting 😊
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex. There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June