Maiden America Saturday: Hoop Tea's Hooptie Handicapper picks 2 yos at Gulfstream, Belmont and Churchill Downs
Races are starting now.
There are three, two year old races slated for you today. One each from Gulfstream, Belmont, and Churchill. The Churchill race will probably have run by the time you see this.
Churchill Race 1 - $100K Maiden Special Weight
2yo’s going 5.5 furlongs
#1 Vodka N Water (4/5) ran an excellent 88 Equibase score on debut in early April just missing by a head. He was moved up to the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes here at Churchill three weeks later and got up for place in the slop. He ran the last furlong in :12.67 and the winner ran it in :13.05. A similar effort today and he wins this going away. #7 Twenty Four Mamba (7/2) scored a 74 Equibase number while moving five wide in the stretch before tiring to get up for fourth on April 29th at Churchill. He just worked out in :47.2 on May 21st and Tyler Gaffalione rides him again. He will be a factor today. #6 Nineties Country (4/1) is a Group 1 breeze fig tested colt (see below for explanation) out of black type winner Connect who should not be excluded. Of his three foals racing, one has hit the wire at first asking. Connect went 8/6-0-1 for $1.37M and his dam, Magestic Stinger went 15/4-4-2. Of her Magestic Stinger’s two foals, one has won at first asking. ‘Nineties has a 1:01.2 from the gate and a :47.8 from the gate. Brad Cox/Florent Geroux 26% winners this meet. #2 Call Me Midnight (10/1) is a Group 2 Breeze Figs tested colt out of Midnight Lute, and his works have been pedestrian. However, his trainer, Kent Desormeaux, is 24% with first timers and his dam, Overseen, is batting .1000 with her foals at first asking. It is a stretch, but you never know in these juvenile races. #3 Glacial (8/1) is a colt out of Frosted. He is likely a sleek grey that has never worked from the gate, so this should be interesting today. I doubt you will see much from him.
Score Avg High Stride Avg Group
Nineties Country CD 1 ** 71 70 80 24.72 24.25 1
Call Me Midnight CD 1 ** 69 66 72 24.98 24.34 2
Glacial CD 1 ** 70 70 77 23.49 23.7 2
Vodka N Water is going to be tough to beat today and with a ml of 4/5, I will likely pass betting this race.
Belmont Park Race 1 - $90K Maiden Special Weight
2yo’s racing 5f
Since this has been taken off the turf, horses 2–5 have scratched, which is fine because I was keen to take the #1 Action Potential (9/2) in this spot since it came off the turf. Thus far in his young career, he is run three races. His first two were on dirt where he ran a 76. In a 71 Equibase number. His last was on turf, and he was an abject failure. Today, he returns to slop, will revert to his speed style and will be on the lead. #8 Sense Shines (1/1) is trained by Saint Wesley and has a quick :35.2 from the gate and the benefit of just two horses to his outside. He will be challenged early by #10 Grafton Street (2/1) a Mark Casse first timer who has a recent :47.6 work and a :49.3 gate work. Two interesting comments about this horse - his grandpa, Galileo is one of the leading sires in the UK and his Irish record was 6/5-1-0. Typically, their turf is damp and thick, so today’s surface may not be as detriment to him. Also, his sire, War Front, was 3/2-1-0 in the mud.
Gulfstream Park Race 2 - $70K Maiden Special Weight
2yo’s going five furlongs
This race is simply going to come down to a hunch play for me and that is going to be on the Into Mischief colt #2 Cloud Play (6/1). He is the only horse in this race that has had a five furlong workout. #3 Cajun’s Magic (9/2) has had only four works with a :49.1 from the gate, otherwise the rest were three furlongs, #1 Desert Ruler (8/1) will be a threat with a :48 from the gate. #4 Don’t Ju Forget (7/2) is a total mystery why the odds are so low with just two works, one a :50.4 and the other a :51. The reason the low odd I suppose is Peter Miller trains. #5 Bird Wildcat is 3/1 with a best work of :48.9 from the gate and #5 Of A Revolution (2/1) is Saffie trained with a :47.6 breeze and a best gate work :52.3.
A good betting race with Cloud Play over Desert Ruler
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex. There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June