Maiden America: RT, the Hooptie Handicapper, picks Tuesday races at Finger Lakes, Thistledown, Louisiana Downs
Maiden America 5.04.21
Hooptie Handicapper
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More rain at the tracks we like, so we will head to three today that have clear skies forecasted.
Finger Lakes Race 2 - $29.7K Maiden Special Weight
3yo’s↑ going 4.5 furlongs
57-year-old jockey John Davila, Jr. keeps getting it done at Finger Lakes year in and year out. Although the meet is only approximately three weeks old, incredibly, he is winning at 63%. In this race, John is on #2 You've Got Male (1/1) who is trained by 67% winner Chris Engelhart. #5 Holy Cowboy (5/1) was sent out twice last year for his two year old season. He was then shelved for six months and brought back eight days ago. He ran well, comparatively speaking, putting up a 42 Equibase score. Today he gets blinkers for the first time and interesting enough, he has never raced on Lasix. #3 Snappy Cat (10/1) makes his 4-year-old debut today. In his previous two, he's raced on turf. Today, he is without Lasix, without blinkers, returns to dirt, and three weeks ago had a three furlong work in :36.1, so look for Jackie Davis to take him straight to the front. #4 Ganondagan (2/1) makes his four year old debut today after running five times last year at FL and once at Aqueduct. Last year, they raced him in five maiden special weight classes and finally did a Hail Mary and tried him in a $7.5K maiden claimer. He went kaput and got benched. He has had four successive weekly workouts leading up to today’s race that would not be quite characterized as razor sharp. You can say ‘typical hooptie workouts.’ On the asset side of the ledger, his trainer, Rachel Sells is 27% thus far, and his jockey, Joel Sone, is 33%.
This is a main squeeze race. That's where you know that certain odds are going to be so low, there is no way you are going to bet it. So, your main squeeze comes back after looking at the horses and says to you, ‘honey, that number one horse sure is pretty.’ You then reply, ‘here's $10, put it on the nose.’
Finger Lakes Race 5 - $29.7K Maiden Special Weight
3yo↑ fillies and mares running 4.5 furlongs
Of the three that I believe have a sporting chance, #1 Ghostghostghost (6/1), #2 Betty’s Smile (3/1) and #4 Boca (7/2), Kentucky bred #4 Boca appears to be the one to beat. The daughter of the Bluegrass Stakes winner Carpe Diem, She is unraced since September of last year. On April 25, she ran a :48.4. workout. In her debut race, she went off as the favorite, got out to the early lead, then tired. She ended up second in that race. She is bred for front end speed. Both her mother and father were front runners. She should nail this today. That is where my money is going.
Thistledown Race 8
$22.5K Maiden Special Weight
3yo’s↑ going a mile
#3 Awesome Ox (9/2) is the son of Oxbow, runner up to Palace Malice in the Belmont Stakes, making him bred for longer distances. Of his nine races, he is only tried stretching out one time and that came with poor results. Trainer Danny Bird just had him doing a 5 furlong workout in 1:03, indicating slowing him down from the start to acclimate to a slower start for the distance. Because of #2 Well Told (5/2), it is doubtful Mr. Bird gets the desired results his workout was intended to do. None of these will beat Well Told today. Godolphin bred and out of graded stakes winner More Than Ready, he has had three races, going from dirt to turf and back to dirt. Based on his Equibase figures, his dirt scores were much more prolific than his turf score. He is entered today, stopped at Arlington Park, had a couple of speedy workouts, and he will be on the lead and tough to beat. Keep an eye on the results of this race. If he does, well, watch for Summer Silence in the 6th at Belmont on Thursday. They both are exiting the same race and the runners in that race who have returned, have performed well.
Hooptie Du Jour, Louisiana Downs Race 7
$5K Maiden Claimers, Equibase rated 46
3yo’s↑ going 5.5 furlongs
Let's take a shot at a price on #8 Free One (8/1), one of the two Kentucky breds in this group of nine. Doing some quick math, this gelding out of Storm Cat ran a 22 Equibase number last out; his debut race. On average, we see a 20 point pickup, meaning that he will project to run a 42. Two others in this race have run a higher number than that, although that those races appear to be an outlier. #9 Robber (9/2) hit a 64 two back and the public will put their money on him hoping he returns to that level, and #3 Custom K (8/1) earned a 44 two back as well. #5 Chatusa (9/2) earned a 42 in his last, which was his second race. He is going to be the speed in this race and there is a distinct possibility he can run away with it.
I am going to make exotic wagers using those three and play #8 to win.