Friday at Churchill Downs: God's Tipster picks the Kentucky Oaks, Edgewood Stakes and more
Thursday’s Recap from Gulfstream Park:
(All odds reflect US pools)
Race 1: 4th@ 9.50-1
Race 4: 5th@ 2.00-1
Race 5: 1st@ 0.80-1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
We kicked off our day with uninspired efforts from both Marisa’s Mission in Race 1 and Starry Hope in Race 4. Neither offered any real run. Starry Hope didn’t have the best trip but wasn’t winning anyway. We made our mark when Hot Babe won Race 5 wire-to-wire after putting away a brief bid from a longshot at the top of the stretch.
I’m excited to get into the Kentucky Derby festival races. Friday’s race card features several Graded Stakes races including the Kentucky Oaks which is the female counterpart to the Kentucky Derby. The Oaks has a rich history in it’s own right and this year’s rendition is quite evenly matched. We expect sunny skies along with fast and firm track conditions for Friday and Saturday in Kentucky. Let’s close out the month with Kentucky Derby Eve:
Race 5: Big Dreaming - 1 pt win
Turf allowance runners strut their stuff here and Big Dreaming is one runner I’ve always been fond of. This one’s dam - Dreaming of Anna - was a Grade 1 winner on dirt and Grade 1 placed on turf winning 10 of 17. The apple didn’t fall too far from the tree as Big Dreaming has already won 3 of his first 5 starts with two second place finishes and last time out he won impressively on dirt even though it’s not his preferred surface based on his breeding. Top rider and more than capable trainer run this horse who’s 10-1 on the morning line and could offer some nice value in this spot.
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Race 7: Aunt Pearl - 3 pts win - BEST BET
Three-year-old fillies take to the turf in the Edgewood Stakes and we have the return of last year’s reigning 2 year old filly turf champion - Aunt Pearl who capped off a three-win season with an emphatic win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Aunt Pearl’s best race puts her 9 speed figure points ahead of her next closest competitor. Her career low speed figure of 79 (in her debut) would still put her ahead of the best any of these have ever done except for one runner - Gift List - who is the likely second choice. In addition to the massive class edge Aunt Pearl owns over these, she also owns a pretty significant tactical advantage as she has very fast early speed and looks like she’ll be able to dictate terms here
Race 11 (The Kentucky Oaks) - Clairiere - 1 pt win
Here we are, the feature race on today’s card - the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at a mile and an eighth on the dirt track. This is a very evenly-matched field on paper and Malathaat is likely to go off favored but Clairiere is the one I like best off her second place finish at the Fair Grounds in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Looking back at the history of the race, 4 of the last 7 years had the Oaks winner running in the Rachel Alexandra stakes, a race Clairiere won back in February. In her most recent start, she finished second to Travel Column at 1 1/16 miles but that one was allowed to sit just off a slow pace and Clariere had to alter course not once but twice in the stretch while closing from far back. Watching the replay past the wire, Clairiere galloped out WELL past Travel Column another 1/16th of a mile out. She’s bred for the distance and has connections that have plenty of experience winning Graded stakes races in Kentucky.
Best of luck 🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀 to all our members playing races from Churchill Downs this beautiful Kentucky Oaks Day!