Friday Horse Racing: God's Tipster picks the 1st & 4th races from Gulfstream Park and is looking at longshots
Thursday’s Recap from Gulfstream Park:
Race 1: 10th@ 5.50-1
Race 2: 2nd@ 4.10-1
Race 6: 5th@ 5.50-1
Watermelon Sugar checked repeatedly in Race 1 resulting in a 10th place finish. We got a nice run for 2nd from Zippy in Race 2 but the 6/5 favorite was too much for him. In Race 6, Timewon’tletmego put forth a disappointing effort finishing 5th in a field of 6 after racing in between horses most of the way.
We turn the page and take a look at Friday’s races where we expect sunny skies once again with a fast main track and a firm turf course.
Race 1: Mamba on Three - 1 pt win (ML Odds: 5-1)
When it comes to turf sprints, speed is the name of the game and when it comes to speed riders at Gulfstream Park, Paco Lopez has been riding particularly well lately. When we take a look at two of our morning line favorites: The King Aquiles and Loyal Louie, we see that they were both most recently ridden by Lopez. Yet Lopez is hopping on a 5-1 shot who hasn’t raced since May of 2020. Upon closer inspection we notice that this horse has been working well towards his return, was recently gelded and adds Lasix for this race. Trainer Carlos David wins at an ASTONISHING 43% of starters ridden by Lopez at average win odds of $4.26-1. This barn also wins at a 22% rate with turf sprinters, a 21% rate with second time starters and 30% when going first time Lasix. He was favored first time out so someone must’ve thought highly of him. 5-1 you say? Where can I sign for those odds?
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Race 4: Tiz a Prince - 1 pt win (ML Odds: 15-1)
Turf sprinters take center stage here in another maiden claiming event and I like another longshot. At first glance, this runner looks like an also-ran but I found it interesting that Junior Alvarado, who has been riding so well, would take the mount on a horse with such poor form. Then I noticed that he’s got a 29% win percentage lifetime when he rides for these connections. Interesting. He’s never raced on turf before and Tomlinson figures scream TURF so will he wake up with a surface switch? Well, that’s where it gets a little interesting. This one’s dam, Tizgale, also made the first three starts of her career on dirt and ran similarly awful. In start number 4 they placed her sprinting on turf and she AIRED at 19-1 odds with a speed figure of 81 - DOUBLE her previous best. She followed that up with another turf sprint win (both turf sprint wins happened to be here at Gulfstream Park). She ended up being a multiple Stakes placed turf sprinter. Four works since his last race and drops to the lowest level of his career. Maybe he won’t follow in mom’s footsteps.. but if he does, you may need to bring a few extra duffel bags to carry home all the money.
Best of luck 🍀🍀🍀🍀 to all our members playing Friday’s races from beautiful Gulfstream Park. 💪🏼