Wednesday’s Recap from Tampa Bay Downs:
Race 3: 9th@ 8-1
Race 4: 6th@ 4-1
Race 5: 2nd@ 2.10-1
A second place finish with two off the board finishes put a cap on our Wednesday. In Race 3 we were hoping Bahamian Moon would get an easy lead and run off and she stayed on til the turn but had some unexpected pace pressure from a 132-1 shot early which ruined our plans. In Race 4, our selection American of Course actually ran off behind the gate before the race. They often scratch horses when this happens but they didn’t. She made a run turning for home but tired in the lane. In Race 5, Duchess of Sussex was head to head with the favorite turning for home, took the lead from that one a little early and had nothing left to hold off 10-1 shot Here Comes Jackie.
We’re back at Gulfstream for Thursday’s races where we expect fast and firm conditions. Let’s get started!
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Thursday Picks for Gulfstream Park
Race 3: Anything Goes - 1 pt win
Maiden Special Weight runners square off in this turf sprint and our morning line favorites don’t get our pulse racing. One hails from a barn that’s 4 for 43 at the meet and the other hasn’t been seen since August, from a barn that’s 5 for 54 at the meet. Anything Goes hasn’t been seen since late November but trainer Saffie Joseph excels with these types of layoffs (23% win percentage). This $250k daughter of the great Speightstown will be putting blinkers on here and trainer Joseph rides his top jockey - Edgard Zayas here. Tomlinson of 402 here is tops for this field at this distance and she has been working with purpose.
Race 8: Prevalence - 3 pts win BEST BET
It’s rare that I put up a 3 point bet but Prevalence checks every box for us. You don’t need to subscribe to a tipster service for a tip on Prevalence as he’ll likely be in the 1/5 - 1/9 range here in the States but the odds on the Euro sports books will sometimes offer better value than we get here and if that’s the case, I encourage you to take advantage. This is a field of 6 going a mile on dirt and Prevalence is using this race as a stepping stone to graded stakes to hopefully get onto the Kentucky Derby trail. In his first start he put up a speed figure of 89 defeating 11 rivals. That 89 speed figure is a full 14 points better than anyone in this field has ever raced. With natural progression he will improve upon that 89. Of the 11 rivals he faced that day, 7 have returned and all but one has improved their speed figure significantly in their next start, ranging from a 9 point improvement to a 39 point improvement with most on the upper end of that spectrum. Visually, he was a picture of brilliance winning under wraps as he widened on the field. Hard to believe that was only his first start. The only drawbacks are that he did come down with a bit of a fever which took him out of training for a few days two weeks ago and his price will be very low but I’m very much looking forward to seeing him take his next step as he appears to be a runner with a very bright future ahead of him.
Race 10: Future Victory - 1 pt win
Turf maiden claimers close out Thursday’s card for us. This race has more than a few speed types and very few closers. Future Victory is cutting back in distance and appears to already pack the best closing kick. The cutback should only help him. Last time out he faced a much tougher field and really wasn’t given an opportunity to run. Top rider Irad Ortiz gets the call for a 24% trainer in Todd Pletcher.
Best of luck 🍀🍀🍀🍀🍀 to all our members playing races from Gulfstream Park on Thursday. 💪🏼💪🏼