Sunday at the track: Garrity picks the Biogio’s Rose at Aqueduct, the Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita Park, & more
After the big day yesterday, the stakes schedule is a bit light. So, we’ve come up with four plays, two of them in stakes races. We expect fast dirt and firm turf in all of them. Let’s go.
Aqueduct, Race 6, 3:52 pm ET
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
Six go in this first-level allowance sprint. The favorite, 6-Foolish Ghost, drew the outside, but we’re against him, as he’s a speed horse who has an edge in early pace figures, but it’s small enough that he’s going to have to work for the lead -- he’s not going to be able to get the lead comfortably, and then coast. This means he will expend too much energy early and be out of gas late.
We think 1-Sneakiness will be the one to pick up the pieces. Look for him to sit just behind the pacesetters, in the garden spot, and to move to the front in deep stretch. We will bet him to win at 2-1, and also play him in the Double covering Race 6 and 7. The bets: Aqueduct, Race 6, $30 to win on 1-Sneakiness; $20 double, 1 (Sneakiness) with 6 (Wasp).
Aqueduct, Race 7, 4:24 pm ET
$100,000 Biogio’s Rose Stakes, 1 mile, Dirt, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
A field of six state-breds goes to the gate in the Biogio’s Rose. We are against the 8/5 favorite, 4-Lucky Move, who has had a fine career, but who appears to have lost a step at 7, and instead like 6-Wasp, a lightly raced 4-year-old daughter of American Pharoah who has hit the board in all four of her career starts. Three have them have been on wet tracks, but we think she is even better on fast dirt, which she will get today. We think she’s sitting on a big one, and at 3-1, she is a terrific play. We will bet her to win. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 7, $40 to win on 6-Wasp.
Santa Anita Park, Race 3, 4:36 pm ET
Allowance, 6 ½ furlongs, Turf, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
This allowance turf sprint drew a field of six. The pick is 1-Quiet Secretary, who has a very potent combination of early speed and a strong finishing kick. She comes off a good win at a mile, and we like the cutback in distance. She has the most natural speed in the group, and we like the fact that jockey Abel Cedillo rides her, as he will almost certainly use her speed to get the early lead. And once she is in front, the rest of the field is not going to catch her. We will bet her to win at 4-1, and will also play her in the Double, with Kalypso in Race 4. The bets: Santa Anita Park, Race 3, $30 to win on 1-Quiet Secretary; $20 double, 1 (Quiet Secretary) with 4 (Kalypso).
Santa Anita Park, Race 4, 5:08 pm ET
Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies
The Santa Ysabel, the day’s lone graded stakes race in North America, drew five entrants. Two are trained by Bob Baffert, and we’re going with 8/5 morning line favorite 4-Kalypso. We like her for two reasons: one is that she has controlling speed and should get an easy early lead; the other is that we’ve given up trying to beat Baffert in these West Coast stakes races for 3-year-olds, as he seems to win every one of them. Look for Kalypso to dominate from start to finish; we will bet her to win. The bet: Santa Anita Park, Race 4, $50 to win on 4-Kalypso.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.