RT picks President's Day horse racing from Aqueduct – In 3rd race, fittingly likes Daily Briefing
First post is 2:23 pm EST.
Maiden America 2.15.21 President’s Day
Rainy in NOLA today, so we will lay low on those.
Breeze Fig’s courtesy of Data Track International
BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Aqueduct Race 1 - $40K Maiden Claiming
3yo fillies racing eight furlongs
Second time in the claiming box for Chad Brown and returning from four months on the bench is #1 Suspended Campaign (2/1). Running for the same $50K tag, typically Brown’s horses get claimed straight away, so you must believe that this one is an eyesore in the neighborhood since she was not claimed in her last. Furthermore, ten marginal workouts since her last and all at four furlongs does not make this runner stand out. Brown struggled all weekend, saddling eleven horses and his best results of those were a third and two fourth place finishes. A cold streak? Maybe. According to Brisnet, he is listed as a hot trainer at Aqueduct with a 9/5-1-1 record this past week. With a 13% rate saddling first timers, Michelle Nevin has #4 Rose E Holiday (6/1) going today and this $80K KEESEP 19 Exaggerator (Curlin) filly fits four key pieces of criteria – 1) no horse in the race projects above the Beyer par of 66, 2) the trainer wins more than 11% of races, 3) the sire that wins more than 11% of his first timers (in this case her sire, Exaggerator, has an 11% rate) and 4) two or more sharp workouts, which she has had six. At a 23.31 stride length, Rose E is right at the cusp of a milers motion, so look for Kendrick Carmouche to keep her off the pace and try to close this out late. #3 Nisbet Beach (4/1) has two MSW races under her belt last year and benched in early December. Linda Rice hot of late winning 31% the past thirty days and 36% from MSW to MCL. After two poorly run MSW race and since being off, this Fed Biz filly has two works under her belt and a :50.7 and :49.8; all of which seemingly unworthy of paying $50K for her. Normally a MSW to MCL drop is an eyebrow raiser, yet this class drop is suspect. Going off at 5/1 odds in her debut, #6 Daily Briefing (6/1) was benched after that race this past October. In her last, she chased the lead and neared through the half and tired out. That was in the slop, so it is difficult to gauge whether that played a mitigating factor. Her works since have been unimpressive and trainer John Terranova not the best in a few of this horses’ ratings – 5% off 2-6 months, 0% with first blinkers, and 9% with first Lasix. However, he is 23% in MCL races and this $50K OBSMAR20 filly has proven her ability after being tested by Data Track. #5 Lightfoot Miss (5/2 currently) has the highest last Beyer of the bunch with a 51, yet still does not project to 66. Getting first Lasix today and Bill Mott 31% of late with a 22% rate dropping from MSW to MCL, she appears to have the greatest chance to win. Of the four races she has ran, her best was the second one where she closed like a freight train to just miss by 3.25 lengths after being back 6.25. Considering that she lost her last two races by a combined 29 lengths and the trainer/jock combo is 0%, the thrill is gone from betting her. Given her proclivity to be the lone speed, I am going to go with #6 Daily Briefing.
Aqueduct Race 5 - $70K MSW Staties
3yo filles going six furlongs
$800K KEENOV18 Tapit filly #3 La Victoria (1/1) will not win today. Of course, with five others in the race, those odds of that statement being true are certainly favorable. The red flag is the 4f, :51.7 work. Paying big bucks for a horse does not necessarily equate to big bucks’ success, ala Chestertown ($2M and in two years racing returned $245K). Neither of the cited horses below were impressive in their testing and Winds Of Capri (10/1) does not qualify for betting a first timer. However, my money is going on #4 Hip Number One after her pace setting run three weeks ago. #1 Dramatic Twist (6/1) put out a solid effort on debut yet was against $40K maiden claimers and you can go broke quickly (a mistake I made yesterday) betting maiden claimers that move up to open company.