RT's Thursday Maiden America: Picks, breeze figures for the Fair Grounds 8th, Gulfstream 10th, Derby futures
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Maiden America 2.11.2021
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Taking a look today at Fair Grounds Race 8, and Gulfstream Race 10
Breeze Fig’s courtesy of Data Track International
BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
If you plan on making a Kentucky Derby future bet tomorrow, here are breeze figs for three. Candy Man Rocket is of interest. With a 26.75 stride length, mathematically, here is his advantage: 660 feet per furlong divided by 26.75 is 24.6 strides. The average stride length for all this level of thoroughbred is 24.5 lengths or 27 strides per furlong. That gives Candy Man Rocket a 2.4 feet per stride advantage. The Kentucky Derby is 1.25 miles, or 6600 feet. If Candy Man Rocket runs it with 26.75 per stride, he’ll have made 247 strides. Using a 24.5 stride length to calculate the differential, the remainder will have to make 269 strides, or 22 more that Candy Man Rocket. 22 strides multiplied by a 2.4 feet per stride difference is 53 feet. The average horse is 8 feet long and that gives him a 6.5 length boost. As you know, there are too many variables in horse racing to make this a reason to arbitrarily bet him, however, given the difference, the mitigating factor is Candy Man Rocket will expend less energy with his extra stride distance than the rest and longer races fall into his wheelhouse.
FG 8 – 50K MSW
3yo fillies going 5.5 furlongs on turf
#9 Santa Rita (8/1) is another Asmussen trainee entered today. She gets first time Lasix and there are three ways that come to mind when evaluating this $200K Curlin filly 1) she was sidelined due to injury and her latest feeble works of :39 and :50.6 reflect that, or 2) given her above par Group 2 rating, her early speed in her last at one mile over the Churchill track, along with a 1:01 breeze on 1/17, show that Asmussen is being the wily guy that he is and looking to unleash her for a price or 3) a combination of both. The slow works are an attempt to get her off of being a speed horse and knowing that the Fair Grounds is a closers track, he’s going to direct Mitch Murrill to hold off until the turn. Given Asmussen’s 24% record in route to sprints, #3 choice seems like the way to bet…..certainly at 8/1. #5 Natalie Would (4/1) is a first time starter by Thomas Amoss (14% with firsters) who checks off the three primary boxes to bet first timers. Three works at :12 seconds per furlong, a trainer with greater than 11% in this situation and a jockey over 15% winners – James Graham is at 23%.
Natalie is a $500K EASMAY20 $500K purchase out of Curlin and Global Hottie. Global Hottie went 7/4-1-1 for $169K in her brief career and has foaled one filly, Nagini, who is a four-year-old and thus far is 9/1-0-3 for $16K. Global Hottie was out of the Baffert barn who ran an excellent second in her $48K MSW debut at Santa Anita and then followed up graduating at Hollywood three weeks later. At 4/1, and with others who have had experience in this race, she looks like an underlay and a pass. #2 Fortheloveoflydia (20/1) has switched to the Hugh Robertson barn, gets second Lasix and the public was enamored enough with her that she was bet down to 9/2 in her only start. Her works have been at best parochial, so using her as an underneath super or tri play may be in the offing. She is facing tougher than her Delaware debut last September, however, getting bet down in her first attempt is worth noting. #8 Ostracize (5/1) is going to take the money given her last speed numbers and Mark Casse, a strong 20% when switching to sprints. She showed good early speed in an 8.25 panel trip on 1/2 and this radical of a turn back makes sense.
#13 Shockingly (7/2) $130KKEESP19 filly out of Nyquist nee Uncle Mo, has notched some very good works for her bow, including a six furlong breeze in 1:13.8. Trainer Bret Calhoun a mere 9% with first time starters and 12% with Brian Hernandez. #3 Sparkle Of Hope (8/1) showed nice closing kick in her last on 12/28 and this course and distance. With five first time starters and three others that have a propensity to get to the lead, this may tun out to be a good set up for her. With a blast of Lasix again today, improving off her last 49 Beyer is imminent. #11 Ursulina (9/2) debuts today for the Albert Stall barn where he is 11% in this situation. Filly out of More Than Ready just crushed a bullet :47.6 work besting the crowd of 91 others. On 12/31, she nailed 4f in :48.2 from the gate and she gets hot jockey Raul Mena, who is 35% in the last ten days. The filly of interest and will get a bet, is #12 Arbitrary (15/1). Coming back after a little over three weeks after chasing the pace before tiring at this distance and locale, then clipping two :48 works in the interim, shows her race shape. Dropping in class today, Adam Beschizza gets a second crack at winning with first blinkers. Michael Stidham 26% when moving horses down in class and 15% from turf to dirt.
Gulfstream Race 10 - $25K Maiden Claimers
3yo’s going one mile on turf
#1 Lease (5/2) is going to take the money in this and deservedly so. Starting out at the MSW level in late summer/early fall, she showed little. Benched until 12/20, she was brought back to the $50K MCL strata and again, showed nada. Dropped into a $25K claimer a month later, 1/13, she made a strong move on the turn and took over the lead until late stretch and faded while being bested by Fuego Caliente. Today, she gets second Lasix and another shot at this price, with a cutback in distance. She will be a tough out. From the geniuses of Turnley Farms, comes #9 Cheval Dore (8/1) where they paid $40K for him and today in his debut, they are putting a $25K tag out there. Need you know more? Without having hard data and only observation to espouse, shippers from WO that are getting their first start on a unique surface to them, have not fared well. Such is the case for #10 Breaking Alone (3/1). On the asset side of the ledger, she was previously trained by Queen’s Plate winning trainer Kevin Attard and ridden by leading jockey at Woodbine, Justin Stein. He gets a big drop from MSW to this level and first Lasix. He has had a couple of good works at Palm Meadows, yet comparing his works at WO, he’s not adapting well. Pass. Moving #6 Aesthetically (12/1) from 5f to 8f fifteen days after his debut is an inauspicious move. Yes, he should improve and no, it will not be enough to hit the winners circle today. Having Tyler Gaffalione in the irons for #3 Maclyrical (6/1) is a huge pickup for Jorge Abreu. After a poor faring on 11/08 at Aqueduct in a 80K MSW race, he was moved south and ran in a $40K MCL on 18. Making a terrific middle move to get within a neck of the two leaders, he tired and finished far back. Today, with the change of jockeys and second Lasix, Aesthetically is the choice.