Friday Horse Racing: RT picks the Early Pick 3 at Fair Grounds, plus horses, trainers to watch elsewhere
First post is 2 pm EST.
Rt’s Two Cents and Trends
Returning to Fair Grounds today where, again, the weather is warm and sunny.
Of note – it will be interesting to watch the 8th race at Fair Grounds today where #7 Darain, a bay colt out of Singspiel makes his domestic appearance. He is a whopping $4.8M purchase from Tattersalls by Qatar Racing, Ltd.
Let us take a crack at the early pick 3 again…
Race 1 $12.5 MCL
Fillies and mares 4yo↑ going six furlongs
If you use both Equibase and Beyers, this race is a great example of why to do that and disseminating the details easier. Whereas Beyers gives you a rating for this race and the horses previous number for you to use as a benchmark, Equibase gives each race a rating and translates that across every race on the horses’ running line. Today’s race is marked as a 58 and by example, #2 Mariposa D’Oro (5/2) and probably dropping like a Kardashian husband) has raced against, from last to beginning, 71, 62, 67, 67, 67 & 81. Those races are rated above most in this field, so some will be an easy toss. As for speed numbers, Mariposa ran a 38, 52, 54, 67, 58. Or, better yet, expressed as 38/71, 52/62, 54/67, 67, 67, and 58/81. The last race was her first at FG and first off a three month layoff. It was also on the turf, as was third and fourth back, respectively. Since turf races have higher numbers, that explains the level of competition and speed. The deciding factor is recent workouts on dirt and trainer % from one to the other. Her score of 38 on 12/17 and her only work since then, a 1:02.4, gives a moment of pause, yet her trainer, Ron Faucheux, is a compelling 23% with the switch. A quick notice of the odds and at 2/5, I would stay away from the win bet, yet keep her in exotics and horizontals. The one that seems to have the best shot at winning is #5 Two More Barbo (7/2). Two races to start at msw, the next at $20K mcl and her last, a $12.5k mcl here, after a two month layoff, along with a 58 speed rating in that race, makes her of greater interest. Remembering that today’s rating was a 58 and betting on the chance that Mariposa is off kilter, she should improve past today’s par and has a sound chance to graduate. One final note, in her last, she sprung to the lead, drew away to the stretch and tired while staying up for the place. Other than #1 My Heart Dominus (12/1) and #6 Linda Got Lucky (9/2) in tow, she will break to be the lone speed and having Adam Beschizza return in the irons for his second look, all add up to a better bet. #4 Diamond And Silks (4/1) is another intriguing entry that should not be excluded. Third off a layoff with two increasingly progressive results, she raced against Barbo in her last. She went five wide thru the half, eight wide at the quarter, drifted out, yet gamely got up for show money. Jose Riquelme is up hopefully he will not make the same trip. Linda Got Lucky has found the going at FG more desirable than her two previous tracks. After a two month layoff, she entered a one mile, $30K mcl in the slop, chased the leaders closely, then tired quarter pole. She ran back on New Years Day in a drop to $12.5K mcl, she again pressed the pace to come up empty. Her form is on the improve and not to be ignored in exotics and verticals.
The lone speed and return of Beschizza on Two More Barbo are my choice.
Race 2 $5k Claimers B N4W
Louisiana Bred 4yo’s↑ going one mile, seventy yards.
We have the George Blanda equivalent to thoroughbred racing in this, #4 Social Misfit (7/2), who is 12 years old. 92 lifetime races, $637K in earnings and 24-11-20 record. That is 26% wins and 84% itm, he may have snow on the rooftop, but there’s fire in the furnace. I had this whittled down to #7 Star Banjo (6/1), #9 Rifle Man (4/1) and #4 as mentioned. However, this race appears to have the makings of a long shot winning, so #3 Looking For Bull (8/1) has that chance. Claimed two back for Denise Schmidt’s barn, she has supported a greater level than these and his switch back to dirt, where his record is significantly greater, will be welcomed.
Those are my choices 4-7-9-3
Race 3 $12.5K Maiden Claimers (12.5-10)
3yo’s↑ going six furlongs
I am singling the #2 Windchill Zar (7/2) because he has run better against tougher and in his last, he lost a shoe and was out of it immediately. The only person I have seen run well without a shoe is Hershel Walker in his debut with the Vikings. The rest, nah.
Call this the pack of cigarettes play because that is the price….
$1 p3, 2-4-5/3-4-7-9/2 = $12
Trainer 20% Or Better First Off The Claim
* won last race
Jockey 25% In Routes
Trainer 25% In Routes
MY VIRTUAL STABLE
He's Zippin On By
Perfect Come Back
Key Races Of Note
Long Legs Louise
No Way Jose
Hide The Demon