Saturday Horse Racing: Mike Dennis picks the 3rd & 8th at Gulfstream; plus a new Pick 5 strategy, the Pick 3
January 9, 2021
Hello again and thank you for reading.
Occasionally you have conversations with fellow horse players, which can lead to a new way of thinking about betting pools. For the most part I pride myself on being a pick 5 player, especially when a ticket is cashed. Yesterday brought a new perspective about playing the pick 5 and actual success playing it.
It started with an email and led to a light bulb going off. My buddy David (@RealDavidCrone), told me about his brother, who has been trying to prove a point to him. Pick 5 players overreact when it comes to expected payouts and may not truly accept their success rate cashing tickets. An alternative is playing the pick 3, where it may be possible to cash more tickets and in the long run see a higher return.
My opinion on betting horses with any sort of success is to find what you are good at yet be open to ideas to get the most value you can for your strongest opinion. If you have any you would like to share tweet them at me, I would love to hear any feedback or suggestions! (@blinkersoff420, @bettorsinsider).
There are two races which stand out to me at Gulfstream today. My plan is to single them in sequences and dabble in other pools.
Race #3 – Maiden Special Weight – 6 Furlongs – 3 YO
The beautiful thing about Dr. Duke is the other connections in the race. The money should be sucked up by all of them and hopefully the 5-1 will stick. Yes, I see the run line and the wall came quick last out. Paco Lopez is aggressive and pressing the pedal may lead to a repeat performance, my hope though is Dr. Duke can get away from the field at an overlay price.
Race #8 – OC25k/N1X – 5 Furlongs – Turf – 4^
Not often do I get excited about a clocker note, but 10-Chief Howcome has one today which allows me to accept the outside post and cold Ian Wilkes. With a morning line of 8-1, along with speed and a prior win from an outside post I am ready to hope for Mr. Wilkes to get out of the freezer.