Thursday Horse Racing: After a tough Wednesday, Mike Dennis returns to the Late Pick 5 at Gulfstream Park
January 7, 2021
@blinkersoff420
Yesterday I punched a $64 Pick 5 ticket that led to one winner out of 5 races. Part of the game is to accept losing, after watching replays and checking a few things I accept that my Pick 5 play was horrible! If there is something to pick up though, note the winner of race 5, Ten Pin Ally. All of this after the fact, which we all know is easy to do. If you considered two things you could have landed a $38 winner, the switch from turf to dirt, after all 3 career attempts being on turf, she took her first crack at dirt. Secondly, the progeny of Air Force Blue showed a couple of winners on dirt out of nine races. If you can find any edge in a sub-par race of maidens take it!
Gulfstream Park – Late Pick 5
Race 6
Kicking off the late pick 5 is a field of six ladies going one mile on the dirt. The maiden special weight event for 4-year-old horses and up grabs your attention right away with the outside favorite, 6-Black Magic Woman. The Todd Pletcher trained horse looks the part and recent works suggest she is ready to go. Her TFE #111 (TimeFormUS: Early Pace #) is a clear advantage to the field and the lead is there for her taking. If not for the TFE# and short field I would have considered the horse just to the inside, 5-Seaside Retreat who looks to improve out of her last race at Aqueduct.
Single Black Magic Woman, #6.
Race 7
The 2nd leg of the sequence brings a $35k claiming event for fillies and mares going one mile on the turf. A nice field size of 10 (#5 MTO) and my mind has been scattered brain trying to figure this one out. Spread happy is what I call it and I will be doing so this race.
4-Golden Curl – I am forgiving the last two races out and hoping Julien Leparoux will put her in the position she was in 3 races back. I like the inside post with speed, my concern though is the
3-Nantucket Red, who has shown speed but last won Sept 2019 at Presque Isle Downs. It might be a bit of an old school use by hoping she is a happy camper returning to the track she likes (4 1 0 2 at GP) and the last two works sold me to include her. 0/8 for the mile on turf but has won going the distance before on the all-weather surface.
9-Lucky Jingle is a mid-pack closer and will need speed in the race but not as much as the other closers in the race. If the two horses I mentioned go to the lead and set any sort of decent fractions the Graham Motion horse might set a nice trip and be able to bring home the bacon being the first to get run.
11-Bareeqa – Even with a tough post position I will use the Danny Gargan trained mare with a 4-1 morning line price. I like that she has been working out on the turf recently and has competitive speed numbers with this field. A trip will have to be worked out with the hopes of some speed upfront.
Use: 4,3,9,11
Race 8
A state bred 40k allowance race for nonwinners of 2 races other than maiden, claiming or starters go six furlongs on the dirt age 4^.
7-Willy Boi – Winner first time out may have more to offer than the 67 Beyer posted. With other horses in here dropping in class looking for a win this one might be able to move upwards. Last two workouts give me hope for a repeat showing and if the gelding can get the lead like previously so a repeat win could be in place.
5-Onemoretimearound – What a great name for the Robert Dibona trained gelding. At a 12-1 morning line this is a possible stretch for the win. Going with my previous thinking though I am aiming for horses on the upswing and this will be a great upswing if a win can be produced. The horse has shown capability and be adding blinkers and getting first time Lasix. I like the recent string of works and I am happy to 12-1.
Use: 7,5
Race 9
A five-furlong turf race can be overanalyzed until the death of you. The optional 62 claimer for 4-year-old horses and up brings 8 to the entry box that all look remarkably similar to me.
7-Tiger Blood – If the pace turns out to be super quick Tiger Blood is the horse holding the highest TFL # (TimeForm US Late Pace #) with a 79. The advantage this gives to the Michael Maker trained horse with Tyler Gaffalione aboard is a “coasting trip”. My vision is seeing the 7 setting back just off to close for the win. The eight-year-old Tiger Blood loves Gulfstream and dashing five furlongs.
2-Fully Loaded – The reason for using Fully Loaded is a race down the list in the past performances. Even though it has been over 8 months the .20 first quarter ran April of 2020 stands out to me. The only horse to run a .20 first quarter and win, throw that in there with recent works and a jockey I trust I am game to include.
Use: 7,2
Race 10
Closing out the Thursday card at Gulfstream Park is a Maiden $20k race for fillies and mares 4^ going 7 ½ Furlongs on the turf. 9 entered to go.
6-Uptown Queen – David Fawkes trains the 4-year-old who showed brief speed last race, one angle I look for with maiden that have only ran once or twice. The trainer stats may scare you away but a horse running a 51 Beyer 2nd out is a horse I will consider over other maidens in this race who have it hit the same range of numbers multiple times without winning.
5-Signing Bonus – No clue what David Brownlee did to wake up this horse last out besides a revisit to turf, which may be all it took. If you want to call me a sucker for using this 30-1 who is 0/19 feel free to do so. If you follow Gulfstream Park at all though you know well that these types can win.
2-Winnipeg Wonder – She looks the part to break her maiden with a lot of early speed and inside post draw. She either improve and maybe hold the ½ shorter distance on the lead or will run a repeat of the last race and fade. With a drop and 3-1 morning line (actually the favorite) I will include.
3-Pearlescent – After a 3 month break the daughter of The Factor came back to a solid Beyer number of 62 racing at the same level as today. Zayas picks up the mount and I think will gain good position off the lead, out of the gate. With a small sample size of 12 the route to sprint angle is a + move for the trainer.
1-Alluring Ramba – With previous races showing ability and a switch up to going longer I will include the Kelsey Danner trained Alluring Ramba on the ticket. Even though only 7 days into being a 4-year-old Mucho Macho Man’s progeny has shown success at age 4.
Use: 6,5,2,3, 1
The late pick 5 should be a fun one and as of 10 am mountain time I do not see any scratches to note in my plays. Below is a table with my picks weighing them appropriately. Good luck and kick some ass today!
.50 Cent Base Late Pick 5 Ticket = 6 / 4,3,6,11 / 7,5 / 7,2 / 6,5,2,3,1 = $40
In order of preference:
