RT handicaps Tuesday's late Pick 4 at sunny Delta Downs
Delta Downs 12.22.2020
More slop predicted for Parx and Mahoning Valley, then high winds for Remington, so we’re headed to sunny Vinton, LA., for the late pick four. With a 28% win rate for favorites, look for one favorite to win, maybe two.
Race 6 - $4K Claimers N1Y
#4 Oneholylion (10/1) comes out of a key race where the winners were racing against tougher. On AE is #11 Bajan Cash (6/1) Fair Grounds shipper, this guy has had a whirlwind of barn traveling this year. From JR Caldwell, to Hollendorfer to Diodoro, this $76K acquisition has been showing flashes of ability at $12.5K N2L level, straight $10K claimers and of late, has been burning bettors money. At $39K, he’s earned the most of this group this year, so this bottom level drop may be the needed tonic. With Canterbury shipper, #3 Why God (5/2), expect Thornton/Broberg connection to go off as odds on due to their 32% win mark. Claimed two back for $20K, he came into a DeD after a 110 day hiatus, worked steadily yet marginally and put up that sort of effort in equal measure. In its last five races, he has been beaten by a combined 57 lengths, although against much tougher. Being a depreciating asset on Karl’s GL for four months, today, he drops down to $4K and it screams dump job. Inclined to make him a saver pick in my horizontal. #10 Valyrian (20/1) flashed early speed in his last before being outclassed in the $7.5K claimer. Third race this year and first race after a 137 day layoff, his trainer, Kearney Segura (38%) is 11% bringing horses back. Three subpar four furlong races leading up to this means do not expect much. #2 Blame The Thief (7/2) another traveler, this $35K son of Blame has been with Pletcher, Gargan, RudyRod and Atras twice. On a per race average, he has earned $5K/race and ran a solid second in August, first off the claim for Rylee Grudzien (9%). Diego Saenz gets his second ride today and with Grudzien, they’re breezin’ along at 31%. #7 Academy Bay (7/2) 3:1-1-0 for $11K at Delta, trainer Isai Gonzalez (21%) is 17% with second off a layoff and 27% with jockey Garcia Ruiz. At Oaklawn this past spring, he put up strong numbers versus tougher. The deal sealer for me is twofold: 1) a record of 8:3-3-1 for $28K at the distance and 2) he’s going to be the lone speed on a track that has been favoring outside speed.
If you use the MKS Wagering System, the main ticket will have 2-7-11 with keys 3-4
Race 7 - $31K Allowance N1X
3yo↑ fillies and mares going 6.5F
# 3 Jeweled Crown (20/1) dropping down in purse sizes after a host of failed allowance attempts post msw breaking races, Oaklawn shipper hasn’t seen action for the better part of 7.5 months and her trainer, Patti Turner, is abysmal bringing horses off the bench. #7 The Aurelia Factor (12/1) entered the $100K Treasured Chest Stakes in late November, hit a sloppy track and never was a factor. Following three bad performances on turf, her connections must have thought her a viable prospect based on her results last winter at Delta. The big if is whether she can regain that form from February and if so, she’ll be a factor. #6 Flatoya (8/1) connections stayed patient and kept this $150K granddaughter of AP Indy and Bluegrass Cat in MSW company nine times until letting go for a $30K claim to Brian Lynch after getting her diploma. Raced once in a $50K claimer, Diodoro picked her up and today she’s facing first level allowance company. She’s had three brisk works since and Diodoro a 29% prospect off the claim. Maybe today she lives up to her price tag. #8 #Ashley’s New Shoes (2/1) Broberg & Thornton again, this time going against winning horses for the first time after an msw win on Dec. 8. Having been in mcl company and now going against experience allowance runners is not a choice….and at the price. #10 Seven Jewels (6/1) Shelton Zenon is 0/3 in first claimers and you can look at that as being due for one or he just sucks at it. In this case, I’d choose the latter because she’s not rich in non-maiden races and the extra ½ furlong for a speed horse known for fading is not worth the stretch. Along with Diodoro off the claim, my other choice is #9 Aura (10/1) Asmussen is tough at returning horses, 27% with jockey Joel Dominguez and although having been on the bench for 8.5 months, her works have been solid. In her last, a $20K allowance at Will Rogers, without fail, every horse exiting that race showed improvement in its last.
Main Ticket – 9-6 Savers – 7-8
Race 8 $10K Claimers N2L
3yo’s↑ running five furlongs
I will more than likely use #6 Golden Tiger (6/1) & #7 Chitto (6/1). If #11 Dyess (3/1) gets a shot, he’ll get the go ahead, too. Karl/Tim again and this time they’ll have the outside stalking bias to take advantage of.
Golden Tiger is second off the layoff. Asmussen who is 21% with that type. Again, he has Dominguez in the irons and has improved in his last two versus N2L types.
Chitto - an unusual story, was bought for $175K. He started his career with Joe Sharp as trainer and his first race was on turf at Kentucky Downs. Sharp switched him to dirt and entered him in an mcl for $50K. John Ortiz had him for two races before getting the current connections, Tim Martin and co, claimed him for a bargain $10K. Martin moved this Into Mischief colt to Iowa and returned to msw company where he showed steady improvement. Finally, in late September, he broke his maiden, benched for two months, moved to sunny Vinton and entered a rainy $20K N2L race where he chased the leader before succumbing to fatigue, dislike of a sloppy track, or both. Three weeks later and a class drop should be right in line with an upgraded result.
Dyess – Broberg 22% second off the claim, 27% winning last start, and Tim Thornton gets a second go with him.
Main Ticket – 6-7 Saver - 11
Race 9 - $10K Maiden Claimers
State bred 3yo’s↑ going one mile
If ever there was a single, #4 Tin Delay (5/2) is it. A fundamental handicapping strategy to betting maiden races is that your horse should have raced its last at, above, or near par. Happily, I have been using TimeformUS and their par is 66. Tin Delay’s last race was a 64 and previously, a 74. This is his second off a layoff and his effort last out showed dramatic improvement chasing the leaders. If you have any extra shekels and want to include another, #3 Ready Redding (4/1) is where I would recommend.
Main Ticket - 4 Saver - 3