Horse Racing: RT picks the Sunday card at Aqueduct, with analysis of Race 3, the Bay Ridge Stakes, and Race 8
Aqueduct 12.13.20
Race 3 – The $100K Bay Ridge Stakes
Nine furlongs for Fillies and Mares 3yo↑ that are NY Bred
This certainly appears to be a two horse race between #6 Mrs. Orb (6/5) and #1 Lucky Move (1/1). So, who do you choose? Lucky Move is 7:1-3-1 for $111,536K at the distance, 8:2-1-1 for $202K this year, yet 4:0-2-1 for 63K at Aqueduct. Mrs. Orb is 2:1-1-0 for $79K at the distance, 5:0-4-1 this year while 8:3-2-1 for $185K at Aqueduct.
I choose neither to wager on and #5 Singular Sensation (6/1) across the board. This daughter of Mineshaft is starting to come into great form, third off the layoff with solid improvement, affinity to want longer, the advantage of the bias from middle path, and the value of $26K per attempt at this distance. This is a play for those who are not faint of heart because for your bet to break even, if the horse only shows, you must bet, by example, $2 to win, $4 to place, and $24 to show. That is, twice as much to place and twelve times as much to show. I would also throw in #2 Firenze Freedom (10/1) into the exotic plays.
Race 8 - $62K Optional Claimer/N2X
One mile for Fillies and Mares 3yo↑
This is going to be one of those races where, whatever the outcome, it would not be a surprise. Of course, the public will throw money at #4 Foxtail (9/5), and for good reasons – 6:4-0-1 this year for $159K, 1-1 at the distance, 18% trainer with last winners, and has won last four of five. The question of “who’d she beat” has the easy answer of the same level of allowance runner. Nothing better. Strike one. Strikes two and three for me are no Aqueduct races and no Aqueduct works. Pass. That leads me to the late flying #1 Ujjayi (4/1). Now that this daughter of Smarty Jones has settled into an environment she prefers, 3:1-1-0 for $74K at Aqueduct, she would have won her last if it were today’s distance. In her last race, she lost her footing at the start, sat a perfect rail trip far back, she came to the stretch and dug in when she bested the next rival, then dug in again when she neared the leader. This filly has grit. The minor class relief is a bonus.
I’m also going 1/4-2-3-6-7/4-2-3-6-7 for the tri
Race 1 - #8 Lucky Lindsey
Race 2 - #1 Rejected Again
Race 4 - #4 Constitutional Law
Race 5 - #9 Flashpackinbarbie
Race 6 - #6 Wailin Josie
Race 7 - #6 Runabout
Race 9 - #11 Nicky Scissors
