Garrity has Sunday horse racing plays at Aqueduct and Del Mar, including the Cary Grant Stakes
We have four plays today, a pair of races each at Aqueduct and Del Mar. We expect fast dirt and firm turf in all of them. Let’s go.
Aqueduct, Race 7, 2:45 pm ET
Allowance, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, New York-breds 3 & Up
A full field of twelve goes to the post in this first-level allowance for state-breds. 1-Sanctuary City checks all of our boxes for turf races: He’s in good recent form, with three good races going back to October; he’s got a strong closing kick, which is a must for winning grass races; and he’s got an inside post, which should allow him to save ground around the turns. He normally sits far back and makes a late charge, but with the addition of blinkers, which he gets for the first time today, we think he should be more forwardly placed early today, and that is another plus. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 7, $30 to win on 1-Sanctuary City.
Aqueduct, Race 9, 3:45 pm ET
$100,000 New York Stallion Series, 7 furlongs, Dirt, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Seven go in this stakes for state-bred sprinters. The pick is 5-Prairie Fire, and it’s a selection almost solely based on speed figures: hers are superior by a significant margin to those earned by the rest of the entrants. Look for her to settle behind the first flight of horses, and to earn a trip to the winner’s circle with a strong rally around the far turn and down the stretch. We will bet her to win at 8/5. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 9, $40 to win on 5-Prairie Fire.
Del Mar, Race 5, 5:28 m ET
Maiden Special Weight, 5 furlongs, Turf, California-breds 3 & Up
This is the kind of race we love to play, as there’s a favorite, 5-Master Ryan, who on paper looks like a standout, with superior figures to the other seven state-breds in the field.
But on another level, Master Ryan is a terrible play: in nine career starts, he’s hit the board eight times -- five seconds and three thirds -- without winning. Put bluntly, he’s a horse who has the talent to win, but hasn’t been able to do so: We call that a sucker horse, and betting against sucker horses is something we live for.
We’re going with a speed play, and a price, in the form of 4-Crankin. He’s a 3-year-old with just one career start, when he did a speed-and-fade in a $50k maiden claimer at Los Alamitos on Oct. 17, and while that race was on dirt, his pedigree for turf is decent, and he showed quite a bit of speed in that start, enough that we think he’ll get the early lead in this spot, perhaps even pretty comfortably. He’s 12-1 on the morning line, and is worth a play on that basis alone: when you can get a big price on the fastest horse in the field in a race this short, go to the windows. We will do so, and will bet Crankin to win and to place. The bets: Del Mar, Race 5, $30 to win/$15 to place on 4-Crankin.
Del Mar, Race 8, 6:55 pm ET
$100,000 Cary Grant Stakes, 7 furlongs, Dirt, California-breds 3 & Up
The Cary Grant drew a field of ten. 8-Galilean is a strong play: he is a versatile 4-year-old colt who appears to be equally good on turf and dirt, and his last three starts, all of which were on grass, were excellent, and should have him dead fit for this spot. He’s got a terrific combination of good early speed and a strong closing kick, which should put him in the perfect spot here, just behind what we’re expecting to be a fast pace, and ready to pounce when the early leaders begin to tire. He looks like the best horse, and it also looks like the shape of the race will favor him, and when these two factors align, there’s only one thing to do: Go to the window. We will bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Del Mar, Race 8, $50 to win on 8-Galilean.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.