Bet Horse Racing: Garrity picks the 5th, 7th and 9th from Aqueduct, including a MSW for 2-year-olds
Garrity's first post is at 1:45 pm EST.
We have three plays today, all at Aqueduct, where it will be chilly, but the racing conditions will be quite good, with sunny skies, fast dirt and firm turf. Let’s go.
Aqueduct, Race 5, 1:45 pm ET
Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, New York-bred 2-Year-Olds
The grass races at the Big A today drew massive fields, which is probably as good an indication as any that winter is coming, and that the days of turf racing in New York are numbered. This heat is a good example, as 16 were originally entered, but scratches have whittled that down to a much more manageable group of nine.
It’s a wide open race, which has us looking for a price, and we think we’ve found one in 3-Dustgetsinyoureyes. He’s a first time starter from the Jeremiah Englehart barn, and we think his pedigree is sneaky good, especially for turf: He’s by War Dancer, a New-York base stallion and son of War Front, one of the pre-eminent sires of the past two decades. We think he looks ready to fire in his first career outing, and we like that Englehart is both good with firsters (20% win rate) and hot at the moment (he’s won three, and hit the board in five, of his six starts at the young Aqueduct meeting). We think he’s live, and at 10-1, that merits a play. We will bet him to win. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 5, $30 to win on 3-Dustgetsinyoureyes.
Aqueduct, Race 7, 2:45 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 mile, Dirt, 3 & Up
This tough one-turn dirt mile for second-level allowance company drew a field of eight. We’re all in on the favorite, 7-Three Technique, another runner trained by Jeremiah Englehart. He finished second last out, in a race at this level, and we think that race was quite good, as he very gamely tried to run down a horse who won on the front end after setting soft early fractions. His speed and pace figures both mark him as the likeliest winner, and his advantageous outside post seals the deal. We will bet him to win at 9/5. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 7, $40 to win on 7-Three Technique.
Aqueduct, Race 9, 3:47 pm ET
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Turf, 3 & Up
Ten go to the post in this allowance turf sprint. We’re eating chalk again, as the colt on the rail, 1-Duress, looks the best to us by a pretty wide margin. Trained by Tom Albertrani, Duress finished second in both of his last two starts, but we think he had excuses: his last was on a yielding turf course that was softer than he liked; and two back he ran into a buzzsaw, losing to a colt named Fiya, who won the Maryland Million Turf Sprint in his next start. There’s no horse of that caliber in here, and Duress looks poised to dominate this race. Look for him to sit midpack early, move to the front around the far turn, and blow the rest of the field away with a strong stretch move. We will bet Duress to win, and it will not be something we do under duress -- we will bet him willingly and enthusiastically. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 9, $50 to win on 1-Duress.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.