Remington Park Friday night – Garrity's betting 3 Oklahoma-bred stakes races in a late Pick 4
The first post is at 10:27 pm ET.
We are heading to Remington Park in Oklahoma City, which cards a nine-race evening program, featuring three stakes races for state-breds, under the lights. We like the sequence of the later races on the card, and we think it’s worth burning a little midnight oil to play them.
We are taking a stab at the late Pick 4, which starts with Race 6 and concludes with Race 9. All races are on dirt, which will be fast, and which we expect to be fair and bias-free. Let’s go.
Remington Park, Race 6, 10:27 pm ET
The $75,000 Slide Show Stakes, 1 mile, Dirt, Oklahoma-bred 2-Year-Old Fillies
The Slide Show drew a field of seven juvenile fillies. The pick is favored 3-Gotta See Red, who is 5/2 off two wins in three career starts, including a smart win in her last, in a state-bred stakes race at Remington on Oct. 16. That race was at six furlongs, and this race is at a mile, but both her pedigree and the way she’s finished strongly in shorter races make us think that she will handle the extra distance with aplomb. We also think the shape of the race will favor her, as there are a couple of fast fillies in here who look to be around early and quit late; we see Gotta See Red sitting just behind the speed, and taking control of the race when the pacesetters begin to tire.
We think Gotta See Red is the likeliest winner, but we will include another late runner, 6-Ekati’s Hit, who is 5-1, on the ticket as well.
Remington Park, Race 7, 10:55 pm ET
$75,000 Don C. McNeill Stakes, 1 mile, Dirt, Oklahoma-bred 2-Year-Olds
The McNeill, like the Slide Show, drew a field of seven. The favorite here, 1-Number One Dude, is undefeated in two career starts, and he is going to be tough to beat, as he’s got the best speed figures, the most natural early speed on a track that is usually kind to speed, and a rail post that should allow him to leverage his tactical advantages over the other runners. He’s 6/5 on the morning line, and we think that is a legitimate number. If there is one thing in his form that gives us reservation, it is that both of his prior starts were in sprints, and he may be a bit suspect trying to carry his speed at a mile. Because of this, we will include 4-Winner’s Luck, a well-intentioned maiden who should love the distance and be rallying late, and who has a chance at 10-1 odds.
Remington Park, Race 8, 11:23 pm ET
$70,000 Silver Goblin Stakes, 6 ½ furlongs, Dirt, Oklahoma-breds 3 & Up
The Silver Goblin drew a field of six older state-bred sprinters, and it has the shortest price in the Pick 4 sequence: 2-Welder, a 7-year-old gelding who won his last two races, both in stakes, one on the turf on Sept. 25 and one on dirt on Oct. 16. His career stats are nothing short of amazing: He’s hit the board in 33 of his 36 career starts, with 24 of them wins.
Welder may win this race, perhaps by the length of the stretch, but from a wagering standpoint, he is a terrible play, as he’s 2/5 on the morning line, figures to be more like 1/20 in the multi-race pools, and as a 7-year-old, it’s fair to wonder if he’s lost a step. We are not throwing him out entirely, but for the sake of the Pick 4, we are going to try to beat him, with either 12-1 long shot 1-Fly to the Bank, who is a 3-year-old who looks to have more upside than he’s shown in his recent races; and 3-1 second choice 6-Quality Rocket, who looks poised to run a very big race here after winning two consecutive stakes races on grass. We will play these three in equal strength, but we will be trying to beat the chalk, as the payouts will be astronomically higher if Welder loses than if he wins.
Remington Park, Race 9, 11:51 pm ET
$5,000 Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
The nightcap at Remington is a claiming dirt sprint with a big field, 12 entrants, and it’s absolutely wide open. Our aim with the Pick 4 will be to stay alive to this race, as we think we’ve identified a couple of horses who are live at big numbers.
The primary contenders are 6-Creative Art (4-1), 7-Apalachee Bay (12-1), 8-Superior’s Boy (20-1), and 9-Bergameister (10-1).
The secondary contenders are 2-Calculating King (4-1), 3-Blended Lute (5-1), and 10-Swiss Minister.
We are going to play the following two tickets:
Ticket A: 3,6 with 1,4 with 1,2,6 with 6,7,8,9
Ticket B: 3,6 with 1,4 with 1,2,6 with 2,3,10
These tickets are identical, except for the picks in the final race: the first ticket has our primary contenders, the second our backups. We will play the first ticket at a $1 level, which will cost $48; we’ll play the second at the 50-cent base wager level, which costs $18. That is a total investment in the sequence of $66.
That’s all for tonight. We will be back tomorrow with a look at the national stakes action, and until then, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.