Wednesday at the track: Garrity picks three sloppy races at Churchill Downs

Happy Veteran’s Day to all.

We have three plays today, all at Churchill Downs, which picks up after Keeneland’s two-day Breeders Cup meeting. The weather has come up wet in Kentucky, as all races this afternoon are off turf, and we are expecting the main track to be sloppy. Let’s go.

Churchill Downs, Race 2, 1:30 pm ET

Starter Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up

This conditioned claimer drew a group of seven. We like 5-Loopallu: he’s a 5-year-old gelding who comes off a win, and is handled by a sharp conditioner, Chris Hartman. He also has three attributes that give him an edge on form on a wet track: he has an excellent off-track pedigree (by top sire Curlin, out of a Langfuhr mare), he has an excellent career record on wet tracks (one win and two seconds in four career wet track starts), and he has the most-early speed, by a significant margin, of any horse in the field. We think he goes right to the front from his outside post and wins this race in wire-to-wire fashion. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 2, $35 to win on 5-Loopallu.

Churchill Downs, Race 7, 4:06 pm ET

Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 3 & Up

This second-level allowance/optional claimer drew a field of eight. The pick is 2-Locally Owned. We think he’d have a good chance on a fast track, but we move him up a lot in the slop, as he has finished in the money (one win, one second, one third) in all three of his career wet-track starts. We don’t expect him to get the lead here, but he has decent early speed, and that should allow him to get a good stalking trip from his inside post, and to move to the front as the field splashes into the stretch. We will bet him to win. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 7, $35 to win on 2-Locally Owned.

Churchill Downs, Race 8, 4:36 pm ET

Allowance, 1 mile, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

The rain has moved this race from a two-turn mile on the grass to a one-turn mile on the dirt, and that has resulted in a host of defections: seventeen were entered, but as of press time Wednesday morning, scratches had reduced the field to eleven.

The conditions of these turf races allow trainers to enter horses only if the race is moved to the dirt, and we mention that because our pick is a main-track-only entrant, 16-Movie Moxy. Conditioner Eddie Kenneally took a gamble entering this 3-year-old filly this way -- most of the time, main-track-only entries get scratched -- but his roll of the dice came up boxcars this time. She has high early speed, an outside post, which is an advantage in this one-turn race, and terrific wet-track breeding (by Street Sense, out of a Bernardini mare), and we think she is going to get her picture taken this afternoon. We will bet her to win. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $40 to win on 16-Movie Moxy.

That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.