Thursday at the track: Garrity picks 4 races at Churchill Downs including a very tough 9th allowance race

While our attention and handicapping efforts are focused on the Breeders Cup, we’ve managed to take a look at today’s card at Churchill Downs, and we have four plays there. We expect fast dirt and good turf; let’s go.

Churchill Downs, Race 4, 2:30 pm ET

Starter Allowance/Optional Claiming, 7 furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

Eight females go here. The pick is 5-Kiffle, who has something the rest of the field mostly lacks, which is abundant early speed. Combine that with her outside post position, and we think this gray 4-year-old filly goes right to the front and stays there all the way around the track. She just missed in a similar spot at Keeneland on October 17, but we do not think she will miss today. We will bet her to win at 2-1. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 4, $30 to win on 5-Kiffle.

Churchill Downs, Race 5, 3:03 pm ET

Allowance, 1 ⅛ miles, DIrt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

Seven go in this first-level dirt race for females. 2-Market Rumor is an easy pick: she’s got superior speed figures in her recent races, a midpack/stalking running style that is a perfect first for this nine-furlong distance, and perhaps most important, she’s facing a field that looks decidedly weak. She’s an obvious pick, but we believe there is value in every winner, so we will bet her to win at 5/2. The bet: Churchill Downs, race 5, $40 to win on 2-Market Rumor.

Churchill Downs, Race 6, 3:36 pm ET

Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Turf, 2-Year-Old Fillies

This maiden race on the grass drew a full field of ten. The pick is 10-Let’s Skedaddle, who finished third in both of her first two starts, but who today we think is headed to the winner’s circle. She had traffic trouble in both of her starts, especially her last, when she got squeezed behind a wall of horses and got rank, throwing her head around and nearly blowing the first turn. The outside post today should help her avoid that kind of trouble, and we also think that there’s enough early speed in the field to set up her late charge. We will bet her to win at 3-1. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 6, $30 to win on 10-Let’s Skedaddle.

Churchill Downs, Race 9, 5:06 pm ET

Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 mile, Turf, 3 & Up

This is a very tough fourth level (non-winners of four) allowance race, and the field is mostly filled with stakes-caliber horses. We mention that because the pick, out of the nine entrants, is 5-Parlor, who is a strong play based on the fact that he has been running, and running pretty well, in high-level stakes races in his last four starts. He hasn’t won since March, but we think that is mostly because he’s been facing some very, very good horses, and that win was at a level very similar to this race. Put bluntly, we think Parlor outclasses this field, and we will bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $40 to win on 5-Parlor.

That’s all for today. We’ll be back tomorrow -- and what a two days it will be. Until then, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.