Garrity's Sunday Stakes: Chelsey Flower, Pumpkin Pie at Belmont, Coronation at Woodbine, Del Mar's Let It Ride
First picked race, the 7th at Belmont Park, has a post time of 3:25 pm ET
We have four plays today, in four stakes races, at Belmont Park, Woodbine, and Del Mar. We expect fast and firm in all of them, except as indicated below. Let’s go.
Belmont Park, Race 7, 3:25 pm ET
$80,000 Pumpkin Pie Stakes, 7 furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Six older females line up for the Pumpkin Pie. The pace looks fast to us, which will compromise the chance of the speed horses and that has us looking at a stalker, and we think we’ve found a good one in 1-Bronx Beauty. She’s a modestly-bred but admirably consistent 5-year-old mare who seems to run the same race nearly every time; sometimes, that’s good enough to win a race like this, other times, it isn’t. We think it will be enough today, as she should get an ideal trip just behind the speed, ready to pounce when the pacesetters begin to shorten stride. We will bet her to win at 4-1. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 7, $35 to win on 1-Bronx Beauty.
Belmont Park, Race 8, 3:55 pm ET
$80,000 Chelsey Flower Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 2-Year-Old Fillies
The Chelsey Flower drew an interesting field of nine juvenile fillies. The turf will be yielding, and that makes the pick 8-Fluffy Socks. She has a rather pedestrian pedigree, especially by the standards of trainer Chad Brown’s star-studded barn, she has already done something that none of the other runners have: she’s won over soft turf, taking the Selima Stakes on the Preakness undercard, on turf rated yielding, at Pimlico on October 3. We expect her to do something similar today, especially since we expect the pace -- she’s a deep closer in a race with plenty of early speed -- to favor her. We will bet her to win at 6-1. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 8-Fluffy Socks.
Woodbine, Race 8, 4:48 pm ET
$250,000 Coronation Futurity, 1 ⅛ miles, Synthetic, Canadian-bred 2-Year-Olds
The Sunday forecast for Woodbine is very wet, but the all-weather main track up there should play pretty much the same as though it were dry. Of the eight entrants, 8-Stephen is a strong play: he is a maiden after two starts, and while conventional handicappers may dismiss him for that reason alone, we think that’s a mistake, as he is a well-bred colt (by Constitution, the sire of Belmont Stakes and Travers winner Tiz the Law), and trainer Kevin Attard, one of the top conditioners at Woodbine, has always had high hopes for him, entering him in a stakes, rather than a maiden race, in his career debut. We think he moves forward in a big way today, partly for having those two races under his belt, but mostly because we think the shape of the race will favor him, as he’s a late runner in a field that on paper looks to have plenty of early speed. Look for him to sit midpack, or perhaps even a bit farther back, early, and to be flying late. We will bet him to win at 7/2. The bet: Woodbine, Race 8, $40 to win on 8-Stephen.
Del Mar, Race 8, 7:00 pm ET
$75,000 Let It Ride Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, 3-Year-Olds
A big and deep field of ten lines up for the Let It Ride. The pick is 2-Lane Way, who starts for trainer Richard Mandella. He has seven career starts and only one win, which is not great, but he also has two seconds and four thirds, meaning he’s never failed to hit the board in those seven races. We like that, and we also like that he has run better in his last three starts, after Mandella sbakovwitched him to turf after his first four starts were on dirt. He has a good combination of high cruising speed and a decent finishing kick, look for him to sit just behind the early pace, and to become a stakes winner with a good move at the top of the stretch. We will bet him to win at 4-1. The bet: Del Mar, Race 8, $35 to win on 2-Lane Way.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.