Wednesday at the track: Garrity picks races at Parx, Monmouth Park, and Keeneland
First picked race, the 7th at Parx, has a post time of 3:37 pm ET
We have three plays today, in three races that go off in less than an hour of each other. The races are at three tracks, from Kentucky to Pennsylvania to the Jersey Shore, and we expect fast dirt in each of them. Let’s go.
Parx Racing, Race 7, 3:37 pm ET
Allowance, 6 ½ furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
This first-level allowance dirt sprint drew a field of eight, and while we’ve looked at the form of all of them, we really only have eyes for one: 4-Chilly in Charge. He’s a 4-year-old who did some good running last year, earning very good speed figures in stakes races at Laurel and Belmont Parks, before being laid off for about nine months. He returned to the races at Belmont a month ago, when he finished far back in a turf sprint, but there is really no way for us to see that race as anything other than a tightener for this spot.
We think Chilly in Charge is better than the other horses in the field, he has a stalking running style that is a fit in a race that has a goodly amount of other speed, and we think that trainer Miguel Vera did not come to Parx for the ambience: he has an unbelievable 38% win rate with horses switching from turf to dirt, which means, we think, that he came here to win this race. At 9/2, he’s a sensational wagering opportunity, and we will bet him to win accordingly. The bet: Parx Racing, Race 7, $50 to win on 4-Chilly in Charge.
Monmouth Park, Race 8, 4:10 pm ET
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 2-Year-Olds
This allowance race, for juvenile colts who have won only once, drew eight runners. 4-Basso is a strong play: the son of Cairo Prince broke his maiden in his first try, at Monmouth Park on August 23, and then ran third in the Smoke Glacken Stakes at Monmouth on September 27. It is that last race we like: while in his first race, he dominated from start to finish, without as much as a straw in his path, in the Smoke Glacken he faced quite a bit of adversity, overcoming being outrun early and getting dirt thrown in his face -- a new experience for him, and one he seemed to dislike, based on how he threw his head around -- but rather than quitting, he fought back, quite impressively, to run a close third, earning a very good speed figure in the process. He did that against a stakes field, and here, against allowance company, he looks to be simply superior to the rest. We will bet him to win at 2-1. The bet: Monmouth Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 4-Basso.
Keeneland, Race 7, 4:24 pm ET
Allowance, 7 furlongs, Dirt, FIllies & Mares 3 & Up
This first-level allowance dirt sprint came up pretty strong, with a good-looking group of eight females lining up to go 7 furlongs on the Keeneland main track. We like the filly on the outside, 8-Never Forget, a 3-year-old filly who took a while to get going, not breaking her maiden until her seventh career start, but since then has done quite well, running a good third in the Grade 2 Eight Belles stakes at Churchill Downs on September 4, a race in which she earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 89, a better fig than any of the other entrants have earned in any race. She’s a regally bred filly, by world-class stallion War Front and out of an Empire Maker mare, and she gets the tactical advantage of an outside post in this one-turn race: the speed is inside her, which will favor her stalking running style. Add it up and we think that she is headed for the winner’s circle. At 3-1, we will bet on it. The bet: Keeneland, Race 7, $40 to win on 8-Never Forget.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.