The first picked post time, the 4th race at Penn National, is 7:18 pm
5F on the turf for fillies and mares 3yo+ NWx
I ran the SmartCap/Equibase numbers earlier and when I checked for scratches, half of the field in this was taken out. That said, this appears to be a two horse race with #3 Just Too Much (5/2) and #5 Eifs (2/1). Eifs is third off the layoff and Just Too Much hasn’t raced since October of last year. Just Too Much has a trainer that is 0% with horses off this long, yet this can be an outlier with so few horses. On the asset side of that ledger is she’s 4:2-1-1 on turf at Penn and 8:3-1-3 at the distance. She was on a long layoff from Oct 18 to June of 19 and her first back was competitive. She chased the leaders and closed fast to get the show dinero. #2 Jersey Life (4/1) is taking a step up after setting the pace and tiring in her last. Look for her to set the pace again and there is a strong chance that she wires this group.
My pick: #2 Jersey Life (4/1)
$31.6K Allowance going 6F for statie 3yo+ NWx
#3 Tyler (5/2) has best last numbers and co-best overall class and speed. He is 11:1-3-2 at Penn and 7:1-1-2 for the distance. Although his numbers are solid, he appears to be the proverbial bridesmaid and lacking the punch to close the deal.
#2 Start Cashin (6/1) is second off the layoff and was putting up solid numbers until the slow down. His first race back, he went off as the third in the betting and seemingly used that race to shake off the cobwebs. He gets our third best numbers overall and has a solid 14:4-2-0 record at Penn and 9:3-1-0 at the distance. I am not a fan of this jockey and will pass.
#1 Loon (6/1) smoked the field in his first out, an open company, MSW. Was brought back a year later to this level and ka-ka’d the sheets. He appears to have the talent; however, which horse shows up today?
#8 Get Set (9/2) has our co-best overall speed and class and third best last. That’s the good news. The bad is that he, like so many others, does not run well outside of Parx.
#6 Gadago (15/1) co-best last and put up a solid number in his last and after a long layoff, he may be positioned to get a piece tonight. Jackie Davis is having an awful meet and is much more capable than her number bear out. That said, her skills are of better use going long and this guy having a 15:0-2-6 records at Penn, is a tough buy.
My pick: As you can tell, there is a lot to like about some and a lot to dislike about most. So, who wins? The entry is going to be bet to hell and if #1 Loon can regain his mojo, he’ll be a tough out.
This is really a good exotic betting race and I will mix the 1 with 3-5-8-2
If you held a gun to my head and forced a bet, #3 Tyler looks like a solid choice.