Racing at Belmont Park
Racing at Belmont Park|NYRA
Thoroughbreds

Thursday at Belmont Park: RT picks 3 races with the help of the SmartCap system

First post time is 2:23 pm EDT

RT

Today, we’re heading to Belmont Park where the weather is in the mid 80’s and mostly sunny.

Race 3 - Post time 2:23 pm EDT. $66K Allowance for fillies and mares 3yo+ NW$ or NW2, 1.25 miles on turf

#4 Ebony (1/1) will take a lot of money given it’s Irad in the irons, yet I have noticed that horses who are shipping in, or starting their year, which have not worked out over the track, tend to not win at first asking. Additionally, this French racer has not raced since November, has not faced older horses, and her workouts have been so/so. I’m not a buyer

#2 Whatdoesasharksay (4/1) has our best overall speed and best last. Returning to Belmont after wintering in SoFla, she came off a three-month layoff in her last, and she took the lead around the clubhouse turn, led the way until the stretch, then tired. She comes right back after less than three weeks and is heading in the right direction. Carmouche has his second ride this year on her and it’s doubtful that he’ll take her to the front as fast. Her Belmont turf record is 3:1-0-0 for $57K

#6 Setting The Mood (9/2) Johnny V and Pletcher with a storied history have an excellent shot with this $140K, lightly raced Malibu Moon granddaughter. Has a trip over the surface and was third in the betting last out, we will see a much improved effort from her this trip. Johnny V 14% on turf and 22% in routes and Pletcher 22 on the lawn and 22% in routes.

#5 Hungry Kitten (3/1) in Shug we trust? Not today. Her speed numbers are good, yet she has been racing against lesser competition.

My pick: I am going with #2 Whatdoesasharksay.

Race 7 - Post time 4:32 pm EDT. $80K Optional Claimer for 3yo+ NW$ or NW2, 9f on turf

#6 Buy Me Candy (8/1) has the SmartCap best overall class, near bst overall speed and best last. He also rates as out best improvement over the past two races and best two cumulative races. Breaking his maiden in a $40K MSW at FG in March, he was shelved and brought to Belmont where he has gone against $81K allowance, open NW1 types and has improved dramatically in his last. He is rounding into form and will be a force on the front end.

#2 Assiduously (6/1) it’s doubtful that a Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz entry will stay at 6/1. Purchased for$220K, he gets blinkers today and is stepping way up in competition. If it were any other tandem that was behind this horse, he would probably go off at 10/1 or greater. Not today.

#1 Our Country (9/2) he needed about 100 more yards in The $1m Breeders Cup Turf Juvenile last fall and he would have passed Structor, Billy Batts, et al. Vekoma trainer George Weaver and Manny Franco are a 23% prop and this will be his third race in as many months. His form appears to be coming back. He’s a stretch flyer.

#4 Shamrocket (4/1) has near best overall class, speed and last. Having just broke his maiden after five attempts on 6/11, look for him to be forwardly placed and press #6 as ell as #7 Will Sing For Wine (8/1) and #2.

#5 No Word (2/1) has near best overall speed, class and last. Bobbled at the start last out, he rallied up to near the leaders and ended up running even to get up for show. Second time with Jose Ortiz , he’ll get a much better trip this time.

My Pick: #1 Our Country will have a pace to close into.

Race 8 - Post time 5:04 pm EDT. $66K Allowance for fillies and mares 3yo+ NW$ or NW2

I didn’t account for the A horse, so if you’re reading SmartCap below, you’ll see the mistake

#2 Grand Cru Classe (2/1) has best overall speed and is moving up after a 6f maiden break in the slop at Gulfstream this past May. She crushed the field last out, gets 2nd Lasix and has had solid works since.

#3 The Great Johanna (8/1) has best overall class and best last. She is second off the layoff and ran a solid fourth off the bench in the $125K Critical Eye Stakes. The step down in class makes her tough in this.

#6 – Maiden Beauty (12/1) has second best overall class and speed. She will be much improved in this and a lover of Belmont going 8:2-0-2 for $137K.

#5 Mrs. Danvers (3/5) I’m not a buyer as her numbers are far from stellar – much less at that price.

My Pick - #3 The Great Johanna

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If you are interested in getting more daily evaluations, please email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.

SmartCap analysis of the 3rd at Belmont
SmartCap analysis of the 3rd at Belmont RT
SmartCap analysis of the 7th at Belmont
SmartCap analysis of the 7th at Belmont RT
SmartCap analysis of the 8th at Belmont
SmartCap analysis of the 8th at Belmont RT
Explanation on how to read SmartCap
Explanation on how to read SmartCap RT
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