Thursday at the track: Garrity has four plays picked at Belmont Park and Indiana Grand
There’s a lot of racing on the simulcast schedule today, and a lot of it is good. We have doped out four plays across the country, all in races that go off in a window of just over an hour. We’re expecting fast dirt and firm turf in all of these, so let’s go.
Belmont Park, Race 7, 4:32 pm EDT
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 mile, Dirt, 4 & Up
Belmont Park, Race 8, 5:04 pm EDT
$100,000 Mount Vernon Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
We’ve put these races together because we like both of them as individual races, but we also like the Double that comprises the two of them. In Race 7, a tough non-winners-of-three allowance at a mile on the dirt, the pick is 5-Win Win Win: he ran in last year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness, didn’t do much in either of them, and his last two races were on the turf. But we think he fits here, both with the return to dirt, and from a pace standpoint, as he’s a late-runner in a race loaded with early speed. We think he’s a better horse than his recent results indicate, and at 6-1, we think he is a good betting opportunity.
In the Mount Vernon stakes, the pace scenario is the opposite: there is a noticeable lack of early zip in the field, which should compromise the chances of 4/5 favorite 1-Fifty Five, who is a come-from-behinder. That makes the pick 3-War Canoe, who should get an absolutely dream trip, either on the lead or just off it, and who has shown in the past he can finish strongly if allowed a loose lead. We think that War Canoe is going to get what amounts to a head start after six furlongs, and that will make him impossible to catch down the stretch. At 3-1, he’s another fine prospect for a win bet.
We’ll bet each of these horses to win, and we will also play both in the Double. The bets:
Belmont Park, Race 7, $30 to win on 5-Win Win Win
Belmont Park, Race 7, $25 double, 5 (Win Win Win) with 3-War Canoe
Belmont Park, Race 8: $30 to win on 3-War Canoe.
Indiana Grand, Race 8, 5:36 pm EDT
Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, Indiana-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Ten state-breds line up for this maiden dirt sprint. 1-Backstreet Lady is a strong play: she ran faster than par (faster than the average winning time at this level) in her lone career start, and she figures to improve today. She also has an edge in early speed on the rest of the field, and though we do not love her rail post, we think that it is going to force rider Deshawn Parker to do what he should do anyway, which is go right to the front and make the rest of the field try to catch him. We don’t think that will happen, so we’ll bet Backstreet Lady to win at 3-1. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 8, $40 to win on 1-Backstreet Lady.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.