First post time is 6:07 pm EDT
Three stakes races at Lone Star to look at today.
The $75K Lone Star Park Turf Stakes - For Fillies and Mares 3yo+, 1 mile
#4 Quebec (2/1) has best overall speed, overall class and best three last races. Be that as it may, the bias shift in turf routes has made a striking shift and not in this mares favor. Through yesterday, front runners have hit 0% wins for the past two weeks and only 14% for the meet.
#3 Curlin’s Journey (5/2) just beat Quebec, #1 Classy Act (5/1), #7 Cowgirls Like Us (20/1), and #6 Terra’s Angel (20/1). The question is, can she repeat?
Not so fast my friend. There is a 5yo mare named Fool’s Paradise (6/1) #2, who will have a say in the outcome. Rounding into exceptionally good form, she took command of the lead in her last, against similar allowance company, as all of these faced last time. What makes her most interesting, is her final fraction being the same as Curlin’s Journey, yet she wasn’t all out down the stretch. Improvement forthcoming.
My pick: #2 Fool’s Paradise
The $75K Grand Prairie Derby - 3yo’s, going 8.5f
Asmussen is like the salespersons who used to work for me in the bullpen – cold call enough, or, throw enough poop against the wall, and something will stick. With a 13% route record at LS, a 20 sprint to route record, #2 Little Menace (8/5) is entered for his barn and has our best numbers. However, I do not see where this colt has the overall progeny to get it done. His mother was a pure sprinter and his father, Into Mischief, ran one route and yes, won it. Nevertheless, the offspring from Into Mischief has been a mixed bag when it comes to routing. If they’re good, they’re excellent, like Digital, Owendale, Go Google Yourself, et al, yet the rest are marginal at the distance. Adding in the fact that the dam never ran anything past six furlongs and you have a better chance sprinting.
#3 Gold Pilot (5/2) another routing for the first time, this son of Paynter has a late kick that gives the appearance of his ability to get the distance. Coming out of The Groovy Stakes just two weeks ago, he was bumped at the break, ran three wide on the backside and came six wide into the stretch, closing three and a half lengths to get up for place. This will be his third stakes run in as many tries after breaking his maiden in a $36K MSW in late January.
#8 Dr. Forman (20/1) is no one to fall asleep on. After breaking his maiden at first asking, he ran a one mile $50K aoc in the mud and hit the stretch running well to get up for place. Next out was a 7.5f $34K allowance and he won, then the last two have been an abysmal confluence of events. This guy has the speed and distance experience to make some noise at a price.
My pick: #3 Gold Pilot
The $75K Lone Star Mile Stakes – 4yo+
Let’s see….we have #6 Pioneer Spirit (7/2) with all the best numbers according to Equibase/SmartCap, who has won $824K on 32 races, #7 Mocito Rojo (9/2) who has won $816K on 29 races and #8 Runaway Ghost (12/1) who has won $782K on 14 races. Now, based on that, #8 looks the best because of his average. Correct? Not so fast my friend part II. Almost all that money was earned at Sunland and this guy has come up short most everywhere else. #7 was on an absolute tear last fall blitzing together five stakes wins in a row, including two G3’s and then fell off in November. With two races in this year and unspectacular results, I am going to look elsewhere.
The two I am interested in are #5 Hunka Burning Love (5/1) and #4 Wind Of Change (6/1). #5 is going to win number four in a row and his speed rates up there with this group. He is comfortable on the lead or pressing the pace and team Broberg/Cabrera are more than likely going to see how things unfold along the backside. #4 is really coming into form after three races in the US from Brazil. His front running style and stakes victory overseas gives him the class and speed to wire this group.
My pick: #4 Wind Of Change
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