Churchill Downs Thursday! RT picks 3 races using his SmartCap system
Unlike many on social media, I rarely carp about the jockeys, trainers and stewards. However, in the second race at Parx yesterday, my horse, #1 Vencil was dq’d and that was a badly blown call.
Churchill Downs Today!
Race 2, post time 1:34 pm EDT
$40k Claiming fillies and mares NWc going 7f
# 6 Magine (5/2) has our best overall class and speed as well as best last two races. Eased in to Churchill recently, she’s had two good works, including a sharp 6f in 1:12. I am a fan of jockey James Graham and with Tom Amoss, they’re a 24 prop. Also, Amoss is 29% in route to sprint and this gal has stellar late kick.
#4 Panterita (12/1) has second best overall speed and class and tried turf in last out, which was a disaster. Prior to that, she was a winner to break her maiden in a $46K MSW at Turfway.
#1 Gone Glimmering (2/1) will take a lot of rupees in this as Gafflione aboard and he’s crushing it at CD. She has our co-second-best overall speed and class and unfortunately, the class drop may not be enough. Over the course of the last four races, she has lost by a combined 50.5 lengths. The term off form comes to mind.
My pick: I’m on #6 Magine
Race 3, post time 2:06 pm EDT
$40K Claiming fillies and mares 4yo+ NWx going 8.5 panels on turf.
#8 Foxtail (7/2) has best overall class, speed and last race. John Sadler 23% with horses off 2-6 months and this mare has been working lights out. In her last, she hit a 96 Equibase figure against the highest rated par of this group. She is capable of better.
# 6 Zabava (5/2) Maker/Gafflione dangerous at 16% and maker is 5th in the trainer rankings this meet. This Skipshot filly just posted an all time high of 100 and given her running patterns, a repeat is not eminent.
My Pick: Foxtail $7/w $13/p for the contest (I was going to wuss out and take Pink Lloyd at Woodbine as he goes for his fourth in a row Jacques Cartier Stakes win)
Race 8, post time 4:46 pm EDT
The next to last race at CD has always been the feature and this one is an $80k Optional Claimer for 3yo+ NW$ or NW4 going 6f
#4 Arthur’s Hope (10/1) has SmartCaps’ best overall class and second best overall speed. Also, he has second best last race. In his last, the Hollie Hughes Stakes at Aqueduct, she ran five wide down the backstretch, tucked in and then went five wide in the turn, and advanced; eventually running out of gas. He clocked four bullet works at Laurel before heading to Louisville. A better trip today by Rafael Bejarano will keep him in contention and use his late kick.
#7 Admiral Lynch (9/2) has our best overall speed and has hit the board 13/15 times. Florent Geroux tough in sprints hitting 17% and 11% in allowance company. Trainer Mike Maker no stiff in this situation, hitting 24% in sprints and 15% in allowance races. This Super Saver colt has run four, three figured Equibase numbers consecutively and when he shakes loose on the lead, it’s adios.
#8 Line Judge (6/1) has near best overall speed and near best overall class. He has hit the board five of six times at CD for $141K or $24K per race – the highest of this group. He also has lifetime earnings of $524.3K, also the best. He is for a tag today which signals trouble in River City.
#2 Seven Nation Army (5/1) has best last coming off the Aristides Stakes, leading Volatile, Honest Mischief and Manny Wah before tiring in the stretch. With Joe Talamo in the irons, there is only one way for him to win and that’s on the front end…and this horse doesn’t have the schmazz to keep up.
#3 Mucho (7/2) with $288K in earnings in thirteen starts, he has the best per race average coming into this. He will take a lot of money as there seems to be a lot of interest in this son of Blame. This is another case of a horse hitting his all time high last out and as a four year old, we’ve seen his best and that may be it. Not a taker.
#1 Bourbon Calling (9/2) was held up in a boatload of traffic last out before getting a crack at it in the stretch. It was too much, too late as Lexingtonian and Hog Creek Hustle got there beforehand. This horse is third off a layoff and is not one to be overlooked.
My Pick: #7 Admiral Lynch – with a shift in bias to speed, they’re going to have to come after him.
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