Monday at Parx Racing: RT picks 3 races using his SmartCap system

Today we’re heading to Philly for the re-opening of Parx Racing. The weather will be cloudy and high 80’s.

Race 5, post time 2:43 pm EDT

$8K Starter Allowance for 3yo+ NW$ going 6.5f

Applying Equibase speed and class numbers into SmartCap, we have come up with…

#1 Emperor John (5/2) has best overall class and speed, as well as best races in its last three. He also has best two races cumulatively. Trainer Lou Linder 20% with horses off 2-6 months and 31% moving horses down in class. He’s had four good works since being off and is 3:1-0-1 at Parx for $8.1K per race, the best of this group.

#6 Chelios (3/1) has second best overall speed, class and last race. Trainer Richard Vega 0% off the claim and 9% with horses off 2-6 months; his works have been average.

#5 Smart Rage (4/1) bred by Zayat Stables, the company the quit paying their bills and is now in receivership over millions of dollars in unpaid bills, is our third best overall class and speed. Showed a little zip last out in February and was subsequently claimed. Trainer Jorge Diaz just 8% off the claim and 0% off 6 months.

My Pick - #1 Emperor John. Depending on whether you characterize 6.5 or 7 furlong races as routes or sprints, Lou Linder is tough in this situation, winning routes at 26%.

Race 7, post time 3:37 pm EDT

$8K Starter Allowance for 3yo+ NW$ going 6.5f

#5 Honorable Service (8/5) has best overall class and speed, best race two back and new best last. He also has best two races cumulatively of his last and has $154K in earnings at Parx. 17% winner at Parx, trainer Michael Moore is 17% in his second race after layoff and 24% moving them down in class. He had an outing seventeen days ago at Belmont, and like many other horses who have fared well at Parx and left, failed to repeat that effort elsewhere. He’s happy to be back in Philly and will hit the board today.

#2 Forman The Foreman (3/1) has second best overall speed and class in this. He also has best last race, scoring a pressing style win against $12.5K claimers in last. Trainer John Kirby just 10% off the claim and 0% in horses off 2-6 months. Considering that Kirby has only five starts at Parx this meet and only two shows, this may be the best horse in his barn. Bullet 5f work on 5.28 shows he’s ready and can be a factor today.

#7 High Flying Guy (12/1) David Castillo rode this gelding late last fall and was abysmal. The horse was first off the $5K claim for Gustavo Chacon and moved into Starter company for the next seven races. He failed continuously until his last, another $5K claimer where he won it going away. Another step up today is not a good fit for this guy, although you can look for him to set the pace.

#6 Refuseing (4/1) Patricia Farro moving him down in class after two allowance races and previously in a claimer, then starter, then claimer ad nauseum . This gelding is great on the practice field and not as great on game day. His recent work of 5f in 1:00 from the gate attests to the former and his 6% win record attests to the latter.

My pick – #2 Forman The Foreman, $10k per race at Parx doubles what the nearest ones have in this.

Race 8, post time 4:04 pm EDT

$35K Allowance for PA bred 3yo+ NWx

#3 Breezy Gust (6/1) has third best overall speed and class and third best last. Broke his maiden two back in a $40K msw, he popped a 90 Equibase figure in that and figuring she may have lightning in a bottle, Kathleen DeMasi moved him to the Penn Nursery Stakes where he burned a load of dough and petered out halfway through. A steady diet of marginal works and a trainer who is just 85 with horses off 6+ months, means he needs a race or two before being righted.

#2 Johnny Ritt (8/5) with Frankie and Robert Reid, look for this guy to take a ton of cash. His numbers ae best in this from a SmartCap perspective, but don’t be fooled. His races have been against two year olds only and this will be his first test with older and more experienced.

#5 Wise Jude (12/1) coming off a $46K allowance win, this guy was really rounding into form when put on the shelf. Getting a cut back in distance may be welcome in this first start in a while. Trainer/jockey 15% together and the fact that he has beaten older, more seasoned horses, makes him my pick. $7/w $13/p for the contest.

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