First picked post time 3:07 pm EDT
Took a hit again yesterday and need to get back on track.
Today, we are back to Lone Star Park
$15K Claiming fillies and mares 3yo+ NW2l going 5f on turf
#6 Miss B (2/1) gets our best overall speed and class and second best last. The low odds is due to her huge drop in price and I am uninterested. Showing no form in the last three races is tough to back
#1 Top Hat Tantrum (5/2) hasn’t raced in eighteen months, she has put up some decent works, although nothing to write home to mom. Trainer Matt Hebert 0 with horses off this long of a layoff, yet 44% with jockey Danny Sorenson. Her mom gave turf racing three tries and never won and the dad never attempted. However, her last race, January of 2019, was a $50K starter allowance and she put up an Equibase 74 figure – the best of this gang.
#5 Rikki’s Gift (8/1) has second best overall speed and class along with co-best last two cumulatively. This is her second race in sixteen days and in her last, on dirt, she showed some spring before letting up. It’s her second off a layoff and a drop in class. Her siblings have all done well on turf and her mamma was 15:5-3-2 for $543K on the surface.
#4 Doc’s Denita (8/1) has had a solid go this year posting a record of 2-1-1-0 for $12.8K. Her last two have been competitive, yet against state breds and this step up may be too much for her. Stewart Elliott, the meet leader with 19 wins thus far, has his third trip with her in as many tries and she’ll be thee in terms of hitting the board.
My Pick: #5 Rikki’s Gift $7/w $13/p for the contest
$15K Claiming 3yo+ fillies and mares NW2 going 8.5 panels on turf
#6 Fashion Island (3/1) has best overall speed and class, best race two back and best race three back. This drop will do her good. I have a mixed opinion given her lack of being competitive this past year.
#5 Shake It Up Tracy (2/1) you have to always be keen to Diodoro trained horses and this one can get the job done today. In her last, a $25K claimer for NW2l on dirt, she was pressing the pace, the bumped hard at the ½ mile pole and ended up chasing the leader for the place. Today will be her second race on turf she will be forwardly placed. Vazquez and Diodoro have a strike rate of 31% and Diodoro is 14% from turf to dirt.
I’ll pass on this race.
Race 8, post time 6:15 pm EDT
$15K Claiming 3yo+ fillies and mares NW2l going 5f on turf
#10 Mucho Mas (10/1) has our best overall speed, class, and best races two and three back. She also has the best last two races cumulatively. She gets a cutback today and has clearly raced against better and had better time ratings, yet her nose for the wire in fleeting.
#9 Hallmark Girl (8/5) has co-best last and broke her maiden last out. Elliott/Asmussen team will take a lot of money and winning a 5f turf race in :59.4 is not world class speed.
#3 Daddy’s Melody (12/1) has second best overall class and speed. She cruises to LS from Santa Anita and her first work from the gate was 3f in :36 flat. The other four were just so/so, which makes you wonder if they’re holding something up their sleeve. This daughter of Scat Daddy will jump out to the lead and try to wire everyone today.
My pick: I’m going to take a shot with #10 Mucho Mas
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