Tuesday at Lone Star Park: RT picks 4 races with the help of SmartCap
Talk about getting off on the wrong hoof. Yesterday, my horse didn’t show up and that was that.
Today, we are going back to Lone Star Park and see if there’s something to nibble on.
Race 2, post time 3:07 pm EDT
$7.5K Texas bred Claimers 3yo+ NW2l going one mile
Equibase/SmartCap has #2 Queen’sredboy (7/5) with best overall class, best overall speed and next to best last. Given the company raced against, he gets best two and three races back. Claimed after his last race, he put out a solid middle move in his last, closing seven lengths on the leader and getting hung in traffic. This guy has raced solely against open company and broke his maiden darn near a year ago to the day on the turf at Lone Star. He bounced around on turf and dirt in allowance races and dropped to claiming for the first time at Sam Houston where Danny Pish grabbed him for $5K. That was at the end of February and he has had four works over the track of late. For this level of claimers, his works have been as expected and he should be a factor today.
#4 Three Day Weekend (6/5) on his ninth attempt, he broke his maiden. That was his last race on 3/18 in Houston. Since then, he has had a couple of works at the track. This horse has never raced against older, nor raced against winning horses – a certain false favorite. Pass.
#7 B J’s Arch (10/1) perhaps familiarity may not breed contempt? He is 4:1-0-1 at Lone Star and has been way out of whack lately, however, with moderate success at Lone Star, he is still worthy of putting in your tri or super bets.
My Pick - #2 Queen’sredboy
Race 4, post time 4:11 pm EDT
$20K Texas bred 3yo+ Claimers NW2l going 6.5f
#9 Gradyz Cat (7/2) has our best overall class and best last. This is based on running in allowance company. Equibase rates this as a 77 and this horse has been going against 77-80-82-78 rated races and not doing a very fine job at that, losing his last three by a total of 18.5 lengths. Pass
#1 Tommytoshort (4/1) is first off the claim for Karl Broberg who is 26% in this situation. Cabrera in the irons where they are a 24% winning combo and since the speed is holding at LS, he’ll be near or close to the lead at the stretch and can take this.
#2 T C’s Image (9/2) has best overall speed and near best class. He also has our second best last and showed some jump in his last race on May 20. This colt drops back to the claiming ranks and is third off the layoff. He could be overlooked and dangerous in this spot.
#6 Algebra (3/1) broke his maiden in open company two back at WRD and moved to LS, then entered into $25K claiming company and abhorred the sloppy conditions, being steadied at the 3/16th’s pole. In his maiden win, he ran one mile in 1:39.4, which a repeat of that effort will throttle this group. Lane Luzzi nailed two wins yesterday breaking his cold streak of last weeks’ 19:0-2-1 results.
My Pick - #6 Algebra with #1 nearby
Race 7, post time 5:45 pm EDT
$5K Claiming fillies and mares 3yo+ NWx or NW4l going one mile
#2 Baldera (7/2) has best overall speed and class, co-best last and best race two back. Gets the blinkers off and takes a big drop in class. Luis Quinonez is back on board and the last time he won near this level was in a $16K non conditional claimer that was on an off track. Since that time, he has gone off form. The big drop and blinkers will either wake him up and give a chance or it’s a sign of something amiss. I’ll take the former and say he’ll be competitive here.
#1 Goodnightloving (4/1) whether it is trainer JR Caldwell or a member of his team placing this filly in races, someone is reading the tea leaves right. Two back, she was entered in a NW2 and summarily ran away with it, last race was a NW3 and won going away. Today, she drops in claiming price, yet moves up in class and she is in fine form. The distance is suitable and jockey Ivan Arellano is back, where he’s 2 for three on her.
#6 Paddy O (4/1) pursuant to the conditions of this race, “not won two races at a mile or over in 2020,” this Paddy O’Prado mare fits having beaten NW4x at 7f on Feb 28th. In his last, he got out of the gate slowly and tried recovering, running up to within a length of the leaders before tiring in the stretch, getting up for show money. He is having a solid campaign this year winning two of six for $24.5K, the best of this group. Broberg/Cabrera again and being back at Lone Star will be welcome, where he is 4:1-2-0.
My pick – Paddy O
My Contest Pick - $7/w $13/p on Paddy O
My pick (now that Paddy O is scratched - #1 Goodnightloving
Race 8, post time 6:15 pm EDT
$35K Allowance for fillies and mares 3yo+ NWx or NW2
#6 Wishful Quality (5/2) has best overall class speed, best last and best two cumulatively. Shipped in from OP, she ran a $35K allowance last out, took the lead and tired. Her previous two were in the nasty slop and she closed like a freight train in the last one moving 6 lengths on the leader. Since the speed is holding, look for Ramon Vazquez to press the pace before moving at the turn, rather than go for the lead straight away.
# 5 Al Shamkhah (2/1) of course we expect Asmussen/Elliott to be heavily favorited in this and I’m not convinced she’ll get my money. This granddaughter of Unbridled’s Song hasn’t seen the winners circle since Meyden in November of 2018. Her two works of late have been pedestrian and her last race she finished passing tired horses.
#2 Distorted Flash (6/1) broke her maiden in the last with a 7f effort going 1:24.3. Since she is going to be the lone speed in this field, I am going with her.
My pick: #2 Distorted Flash
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