For the first time, in seemingly a long time, spectators will be allowed to watch a horse race in person and it’s at Lone Star Park. First picked post time is 5:05 pm EDT.
Today is a momentous day in horse racing. For the first time, in seemingly a long time, spectators will be allowed to watch a horse race in person and it’s at Lone Star Park. I can well imagine that, although in 90+ degree heat, there will be a long line for the “capacity” crowd. Smartly done, Lone Star took the opportunity to add fans on Texas Champions Day – which Sam Houston had scheduled on March 21st and had to cancel because of a blown transformer and rescheduled for today. There are seven stakes races on tap.
First, to recap yesterday, I took a hit in the bank with my choice of VJ’s Bet in the 8th not showing up and Miss T Too in the 10th hitting the place bet. Total bet yesterday was $40 and returned $35.10, for a net of ($4.90).
What appears to be a very chalky day could hold some value in a few races.
All of the stakes races will be for $75K and all Texas breds.
For fillies and mares 4yo+ going 6f
#6 Shes Our Fastest (6/5) sometimes you have to question what a trainer is doing and this is the case. Over the past six races starting with the last, this mare has raced one mile, five furlongs, one mile, five furlongs, one mile, then six furlongs. In each case she hit the board winning three of the six. Often, where she went from a route to a sprint, she has not won. She was the winner of this event last year and then she ran on two months off versus four. She has, by far, the best numbers of this group and is the class of the field, yet I see a chance with another.
#1 Eaton’s Memory (10/1) is going to grab the lead and may not let go. Going for five wins in a row, she shipped in from Fonner where today, her advantage will be going one turn at this distance instead of the bullring two. She is as game as they come and has an arcing style that contours the turn rather than fighting the grain.
#2 Ima Discreet Lady (5/2) has been a money burner of late disappointing in her last two while going off at short odds. She hasn’t won since late February, which was a $20K aoc for NW2x. Broberg/Cabrera always tough, yet she appears to have gone rank in form.
#3 Brave Daisey (9/2) has our second best numbers and the connections probably tired from the lack of results, returned this 5yo mare to trainer Tina Hurley. Unfortunately, Tina has yet to win a stakes race with her and has had her best efforts in optional claimers.
My Pick: this is going to come down to whether Shes Our Fastest catches Eaton’s Memory in the stretch. It’s a high probability she will, yet I am still going with the #1
$7/w $13/p for the contest.
For 4yo+ going 6f
#5 Imma Bling (6/5) has all of Equibase/SmartCaps’ numbers going for him. He has best overall speed, class and best last. Again, Broberg/Cabrera team up and will take a lot of money in this and the biggest knock I see is he has yet to win at LS, going 4:0-2-0 for $8K. In his last, a 5f turf race just two weeks ago, he was bumped at the break, then bumped at the ½ mile pole and went three wide on the turn to gamely get up for the show money.
#3 Direct Dial (7/5) with Asmussen/Elliott getting 29% winners, expect the board to light with backers and why not? This grandson of Mineshaft is lifetime 21:5-4-6 for $274K, or $13K per race, which puts him head and shoulders above the rest. He is 5:1-1-1 at Lone Star for $54K.
#1 Affluent Gentleman (10/1) is going to be the lone speed and coming from Sunland, will probably not be able to close the deal with the heavier track change. However, this guy would certainly be one to use in exotic wagers.
#4 JC’s Nightcap (15/1) has Sam Houston leading money winner DeShawn Parker back aboard and the last time he was on him, DeShawn stalked the pace and ran out of real estate at the wire, getting up for second. His last races have been on either turf or tapeta and this makes him a certain wildcard.
My Pick: I think Broberg used that last turf race for Imma Bling two weeks ago as a tune-up for this and perhaps was surprised to cash the third place check. He’s the one I lean to.
For 4yo+ going nine panels on turf
#7 Redatory (7/5) I’m guessing that this horse and the #5 in the next race are the primary reasons for DeShawn Parker to be in town. The true primary reason is, of course, money. SmartCap has this gelding checking off all the boxes – best last, best overall class and speed, along with best last two cumulatively. With the added furlong in this race, he seems the one who can get the extra distance and win.
My pick: #7 Redatory
For 3yo’s going 6f
#2 Gold Pilot (2/1) has the best last and best overall speed. Bret Calhoun and David Cabrera team up and as a 30% win proposition, appear to have a shot at this. However, there are others who look interesting
#8 Moro Said Ready (12/1) running and winning as a two year old is valuable and this guy did it twice last year. He has our best overall class and best two cumulatively. He has not raced in a year, yet has been working well in the last two months. This horse has a nose for the finish line since the switch to jockey Valdez-Jiminez who is on him today.
#4 John Dough (20/1) gets second Lasix for the second time starter and an improvement from the last 73 Equibase score is imminent. Watch out for trainer Danny Pish in times like this. He has a habit of pulling these off.
#6 Good Judgment (5/2) team Asmussen/Elliott coming back after just three weeks and an allowance win with him. LS record of 3:2-1-0 may prove formidable and his pressing style will play a big role in the pace.
My pick: I’ll take a contest shot with Moro Said Ready for three in a row. $7/w $13/p
For 3yo fillies going 6f
This one appears more competitive with #7 Gee She Sparkles (3/1) having a 2-2 record at LS for $79K , #6 No Mas Tequila (9/2) going for three in a row, #3 Always In The Munny (8/5) coming off an eight length victory, and #1 Tristan’s Gold (12/1) getting a four length win her last time.
My bet is, in the words of Deep Throat, “follow the money.” #7
For fillies/mares 4yo+ going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf
#6 Corluna comes into this at odds on and I am not a player. I think #1 Too Much Irish (3/1) with Danny Pish and Lane Luzzi will be too much filly for her.
My pick: #1 Too Much Irish
For 4yo+ going one mile
I’m taking a shot with #9 Cowboy Bing (15/1) who has a chance to the stretch runner and make a move into a hot pace.
My pick: #9 Cowboy Bing
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