Danny California, shown here racing at Belmont in October, 2019, is RT's pick to win the 7th at Belmont
Danny California, shown here racing at Belmont in October, 2019, is RT's pick to win the 7th at Belmont|NYRA
Thoroughbreds

Thursday at Belmont Park: RT picks the 5th and 7th races

Today, we are heading to Belmont Park for two allowance races. It’s supposed to rain, so we’ll see who sticks and who scratches. Post time is 3:27 pm EDT

RT

Days until rotgut 2020 is over: 203

Yesterday, we saw Hunka Burning Love take command at the top of the stretch then dig in gamely to pull away from oncoming Lasting Legacy. A gutsy performance that is worth putting both of those horses in your virtual stable. The second choice at Assiniboia didn’t fare as well and I didn’t see it.

Today, we are heading to Belmont Park for two allowance races. It’s supposed to rain, so we’ll see who sticks and who scratches. As of 10:00 am EDT:

Belmont Park, Race 5, post time 3:27 pm EDT

$66K Allowance for 3yo fillies NWx or NW2 going 8.5f

Equibase numbers thru SmartCap has…

#5 Spice Is Nice (4/5) has best overall speed, class and best last two. Pletcher/Velazquez 18% together and Pletcher is snaring a very un-Pletcher like 16% with horses off 2-6 months. Aha, but not so fast my friend. Big time players get up in big time games and this will be no different. This horse will be there.

#4 Kansas Kis (6/1) has near best overall speed and second best class. Two back, she was nosed at the wire in the Busher Invitational Stakes. Last out, in the G3 Fantasy Stakes, she met a buzzsaw in Swiss Skydiver and, in the words of my Lou-zee-anna neighbor, “dun give up.” Last weekend, Swiss Skydiver returned to win The G2 Santa Anita Oaks besting her 104 Equibase figure previously with a 108. She is having a profitable 2020 going 4:1-2-0 for $107K. Trainer Raymond Handal is 23% with horses off 2-6 months and Manny Franco struggling this meet.

#2 Master Of Hope (8/1) and #1 Saratoga Affair (5/1) are both second time starters who won their first and Master Of Hope, being trained by Chad Brown, will take more money than the latter. I’m going to take Master Of Hope in this race for our contest ($7/w $13/p) because looking at the pp’s, she clocked an 86 Equibase number and Spice Is Nice has hit, at her best, a 93. Given most horses propensity to improve their second time out, she should exceed the 93 figure which would force Spice Is Nice to run her best number.

Belmont Park, Race 7, post time 4:32 pm EDT

$56K Allowance for NY foaled 3yo’s+ NWx or NW2 going 8.5f

There are bad horse purchases. There are very bad horse purchases. And then there is #4 Chestertown (1/1). Purchased by West Point Thoroughbreds in March of last year, this colt cost $2M and has since returned just $71.5K. Personally, if I were in the shoes of owners Terry & Debbie Finley of West Point Thoroughbreds and Robert Masiello of Siena Farm, I would dump Asmussen under the aegis of finding out whether it’s the horse or its environment. You have to believe that they’re spent with excuses. He does get all world Irad Jr. today, so we’ll see.

#3 Danny California (6/1) has near best overall speed and second best class. He is second off the layoff and Joel Rosario gets his second chance on him. In his last two, he had troubles at the start, then two back, recovered to score a solid win. He is the only horse in this race to have a win at this track and his trainer, Orlando Noda, is 67% with horses off 2-6 months.

#8 Beg To Differ (8/1) coming off an impressive 6.5 length win last out at Aqueduct, he gets a positive jockey switch to Javier Castellano. He has solid works since and Jonathan Thomas is 36% with 2-6 months off horses. This guy can be a real wild card.

I am not crazy about this race, yet, I am going to take Danny California – a win at the track and a mud record of 8:2-0-1.

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If you are interested in getting more daily evaluations, please email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.

SmartCap analysis of the 5th at Belmont Par on 6/11/2020
SmartCap analysis of the 5th at Belmont Par on 6/11/2020 RT
SmartCap analysis of the 7th at Belmont Par on 6/11/2020
SmartCap analysis of the 7th at Belmont Par on 6/11/2020 RT
Explanation on how to read SmartCap
Explanation on how to read SmartCap RT
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