Post time 4:43 pm EDT
Yesterday, I managed to recoup some losses from earlier in the week, yet I did not get in the black.
Total Wagered for the week - $180
Returned - $114.30
Net – (65.70)
For today, there are two races at Lone Star to evaluate
$15K Claiming for 3yo+, unless its bred in Tejas and it’s $17.5K tag (only applies to the #1). This race is going 8.5 panels on the turf
After running the Equibase numbers thru SmartCap, this is what we came up with…
#7 Vaporman (6/1) has best overall class, very close overall speed and best last. This will be his second race on the turf and I have no idea when the last was. My pp’s go back to December of 2017 and that race cannot be found. However, he did finish second and his sire, Smoke Glacken, was 3:2-1-0 on wet dirt which typically translates to a solid turf runner. Jockey Danny Sorenson has been hot of late, catching 33% in the win column. This is a tough call on this guy as his win rate is 16% and it’s been a loooong time since he’s seen the winners circle. That said, his works have been good the past four. Could it be he’s the type to work out well and choke on game day?
#8 Mas Mischief (12/1) has best overall speed and is making a big leap in class. Pass
#5 Heat Flash (7/2) has second best overall class, speed and best last two. He has a 3:2-0-0 record on LS turf and is coming off a win at RP, albeit in September. Broberg/Cabrera getting 25% winners, while Broberg is 27% with horses that have won its last and 18% bringing them back after a long layoff. He’s had two good works of late and I’m wondering if he doesn’t need a race or two….
#3 Sonic Boom (3/1) has an excellent chance at being the lone speed in this race and made it Lone Star via WRD, then a workout at Canterbury and back to Big D. He has the best 2020 campaign money so far with $8.8K earned per race and $12.5K per race with the closest of the rest being $5.2K. Cabrera opting for Heat Flash is probably a key indicator of whether this horse has a shot to win.
#10 Gray Hope (9/2) is going to be my choice. Asmussen/Elliott getting 30% and he has a turf record of 6:4-0-0. His last race was his back to normal numbers after the previous two off the turf and this distance is suitable for him.
My pick: #10 Gray Hope.
$39K Allowance for 3yo going 8.5 panels.
#2 Sir Rick (6/5) has best overall class, speed and best last – primarily for the money he raced against versus the results. To me, taking a ml 6/5 favorite that has been beaten in its last two by a combined 44 lengths, is sinful.
#5 Code Runner (15/1) has third best overall class, speed and second best last. Tossing out his no chance episode in The Rebel, where Nadal came away with a big win, and you’ll find a horse that put on an excellent performance in the previous race, winning by 3.25 lengths against similar company. He recently had a bullet work of 5f in 1:01.2 and his last was another 5f of 1:01.4 from the gate.
#4 Caney’s Ghost (8/1) is coming off a win in The Will Rogers Stakes and the previous race he won a $22.5K allowance at WRD. He’s had three good works, trainer Theresa Sue Luneack is 78% with David Cabrera, 46% with last out winners and 50% overall. He jumped from a 72 Equibase figure to an 89 and it would take every bit of that effort to win in this.
#7 Top Draw (10/1) has second best overall class and speed and best races two and three back. He got out of the gate badly in his last, was blocked and then steadied. The race over the track may have done him some good, however, I am not a fan of Sunland shippers and a repeat of that last may be eminent.
#1 Icecap (7/5) Asmussen/Bridgmohan going 25% and they showed up with this Big Brown grandson versus similar and blew the field by 5 lengths in its last. His numbers are marginal compared to the rest of the field, yet you have to respect the adaption on Lone Star.
My pick: I am going with Code Runner. The two works, especially the gate work last time, along with his competitiveness, makes him a compelling choice – certainly at that price.
For the contest, I am taking Code Runner, $7/w and $13/p
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