We expect fast dirt and firm turf in all three races. First post time is 4:11pm EDT
We are heading this afternoon back to Lone Star Park in suburban Dallas, where there’s a nine-race Tuesday program. We have three races we like, and we expect fast dirt and firm turf in all three of them. Let’s go.
Maiden Speical Weight, 7 ½ furlongs, Turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
This straight maiden race for females drew a full field of twelve. It’s a wide open affair, with the favorite a lukewarm 5/2, and four entrants priced between 5/2 and 4-1 on the morning line.
We’re all in on a first-time starter here, 3-American Dream, who comes from the powerful Steve Asmussen barn. She’s a 3-year-old filly by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who somewhat surprisingly turned out to be a highly effective turf sire. American Dream also has turf breeding on her maternal side, as her dam is an unraced daughter of the late Kingmambo, a champion on turf and a hugely influential grass stallion.
That top and bottom turf breeding will serve American Dream well here, as will both her long string of morning workouts, and the fact that Asmussen is good at getting horses to fire first out. She looks good enough to beat this modest group of maidens, so we will bet her to win at 4-1. The bet: Lone Star Park, Race 4, $40 to win on 3-American Dream.
Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Dirt, Texas-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
We go from maidens on the grass to maidens on dirt: ten state-breds drew into the 6th at Lone Star. We like 4-Jewel Street, a 3-year-old filly with one career start. That race was on the grass, and while she ran well, we think she is going to run better on the dirt today, partly because she’ll do better with that start under her belt, and partly because we think she’ll prefer the dirt surface. As a late runner, she also figures to benefit from a fast pace that will have the pacesetters gasping for air. We like Jewel Street’s chances and will bet her to win at 9/2. The bet: Lone Star Park, Race 6, $35 to win on 4-Jewel Street.
$25,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 3 & Up
This hard-knocking claimer on the turf drew a field of twelve. 10-Praetorian is a strong play: he’s a 5-year-old gelded son of Tiznow who has been popular at the claiming box, having been claimed twice, both times out of dirt races at Oaklawn Park, since the beginning of April. Today he makes his first start for high-percentage trainer Karl Broberg, who ships him from Arkansas to Texas and switches him from dirt to grass. The claiming races at the recently concluded Oaklawn meeting were brutally tough, and Praetorian ran very well in them, so he’s razor-sharp, has run well on turf before, and has a pace-pressing running style that we think will work here. Add it all up, and we are going to the windows to bet Praetorian to win at 9/2. The bet: Lone Star Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 10-Praetorian.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.