RT and SmartCap pick Saturday's 6th and 7th races at Churchill Downs
RT Report 5.23.2020
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Yesterday, we caught Galindo on the place bet and Lionite won going away, giving us a profitable day to chip away at the $48 hit from WRD.
All bets are, hypothetically, $2/w and $4/p on each selection.
Current tally - $383.00 bet, $375.30 returned, -2.01 roi
We are back at Churchill today. Because of space limitations/ field sizes, I was able to handicap the sixth and the seventh (The Shawnee Stakes).
Race 6 Post time 3:36est weather 82̊ and clear
$81K Allowance for 3yo’s+ NWx or NW2 going 6.5f
Equibase and SmartCap turned up –
#2 High Crime (7/2) has best last, best three back (which was a dirt race vs the two previous turf) and best overall class. Trainer Darrin Miller is 13% with horses off 2-6 months and his last two have been on grass. He is returning to a shorter distance today and it appears that his best game is longer. That said, he has the propensity to be the lone speed in this race and given his stamina for length, he can wire this group. Florent Geroux is up and is second in the jockey standings with three wins. Having the sire Violence is a plus.
#5 Breaking News (12/1) has best overall speed, near best class and second best cumulative last two. His April 30th race is the most recent of this group and being second off the layoff will make him a strong consideration. Joe Talamo has one win in twenty-three tries and like yesterday, his mount has four starts at CD with a place and a show. Looks like an exotic choice.
#4 Get The Prize (5/2) has near best overall speed and class, near best last and best race two back. Again, we have another who is yet to produce a win at the track going 3:0-2-0 for $43K (best of this group). His recent work from the gate of :49.6 is promising and his trainer, is an impressive 33% with runners off 2-6 months. Along with Joel Rosario, they have eight wins for a notable 63%.
#10 Smart Time (12/1) previously trained by Laurel leader Claudio Gonzalez, he was gelded in November and gauging from his workouts, the improvement and maturity have been positive. Castillo has only one horse on layoff for more than six months and he won with it. Given the speed in this race, he will have a long stretch and a shot at closing into it.
#3 Picasso (3/1) Steve Asmussen is already leading the trainers at CD and I would assume the vast majority are with this same jockey, Ricardo Santana. There is not a lot to dislike about this colt with stakes winner Inspired as his dam and Wood Memorial/Florida Derby winner Tapit as his daddy. Coming off a long layoff in March at The Fair Grounds, he took command of the lead and cruised to a 2.5 length victory in a $45K MSW race last out. If he shakes loose from High Crime and Get The Prize, he’ll be tough to beat.
I’m going to take a shot with #10 Smart Time. At 6.5 furlongs, he will have a shot at closing and Martin Garcia will have some gas in the tank late.
Race 7 Post time 4:08est
The $100K Shawnee Stakes for fillies and mares 4yo+ going 1.0625 miles
Could this be the two horse race that SmartCap has uncovered? Not if Team Pletcher/Johnny V have a say so.
#4 Dunbar Road (4/5) is going to take more money than Benny Hinn on a crusade. Given the public’s adoration for Chad Brown and deservedly so, this does not appear to be a cozy spot for him. #8 She’s A Julie (2/1) has had brisker works, has bested her Dunbar Road last out and is under the tutelage of Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. Meanwhile, Todd Pletcher has the Maryland bred, #5 Another Broad (10/1) geared up for her first race back since January. #6 Vault (10/1) who will probably get some attention at the windows today, gets blinkers off for Brad Cox and will be looking to press Dunbar Road for the front end.
My money is on She’s A Julie. A millionaire five-year-old with an extra year of racing over the heavy favorite is the logical conclusion for this hack.