RT goes to Churchill Downs this Friday and handicaps races 2 and 3 using SmartCap

I turned a profit last night at Charles Town with Anthony Farrior’s (@farriorracing) first timer Burren Rocks winning race two and Ollie Figgens III (@figginsracing) Gin N Spice getting up for second in race three.

My bets are, hypothetically, $2/w and $4/p on each selection.

Current tally - $367.00 bet, $345.30 returned, -5.91 roi

Today we’re going to my hometown of Louisville and watching the races at Churchill Downs. This brings back a ton of memories, primarily with my father. Like many others whom I’ve heard speak of their earliest track memories, our collective fathers seemingly connect us to the ponies.

Today, we’re handicapping races 2 and 3.

Race 2 Post Time 1:30pm EDT

$30K 3yo+ Claimers that are NW2 going one mile and a sixteenth.

Using Equibase speed and class numbers and inputting them into SmartCap, we have come up with:

#2 Galindo (7/2) with best overall class, near best overall speed and near best last. He also has best next last and best last three back. This Daaher gelding has four races at CD with all four coming in second. Trainer Paul McGee is 20% bringing horses back from two to six months and he fired a nice 5f work in 1:00.2

#1 Martial Eagle (12/1) has best overall speed and best last and near best two back. This guy has had some rotten starts the past two and coming out of the one position should be most helpful.

#6 Runnin’ Ray (7/2) has second best overall speed and class. Martin Garcia and Joe Sharp are a terrific tandem getting 29% winners and this OP shipper has a win at this distance in his last.

#7 Oro De Tejano (3/1) is going to take a lot of money due to the Diodoro/Cohen connection and the numbers are solid – 26% off 1-2 months, 25% in claiming races, 22% with the jockey and 29% on dirt.

My bet is on #2 Galindo. The class drop and the chance for Joe Talamo to get his first win, along with his CD experience and workout, all point in the right direction.

Race 3 Post Time 2:00 pm EDT

$25K 4yo+ Claimers that are NWx going 7f

#2 California Swing (15/1) has best overall class and near best overall speed. He also has best last and is coming from synthetic at TP where he struggled. However, four of his seven wins have been on turf, so he’s a pass.

#6 Spokane Eagle (3/1) has best overall speed and won his last. Watching yesterday, OP shippers have done well at CD, so this Speightstown gelding will be one to watch.

#11 Flat Lucky (12/1) has third best overall class and speed and has hit the board in both of his outings at CD. One to include in your exotics.

#10 Lionite (4/1) Asmussen/Santana connection, his numbers aren’t as strong as the rest, yet the race is not run on paper. 5yo Quality Road gelding is tops in per race $$ average at $13.7K with the nearest to him being Spokane Eagle at $8.6K.

#8 Shakes Creek (15/1) has second best overall class and speed values, best cumulative last two and a 2:1-1 record at CD for $30K.

#3 Hardly A Secret (7/2) will probably take some money in this with his 9:2-3-0 record at CD and positive jockey switch to Joel Rosario.

#4 Sevier (15/1) just when you think Corey Lanerie does not have a chance with a horse, you should never count this guy out at CD. 10:3-1-1 record at CD for $92K will certainly make for an interesting exotic.

Who Wins?

My money is on the money – Lionite with that decided advantage in per race winnings and his connections.

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