SmartCap and RT pick two handicap races — the 7th and 9th at Will Rogers Downs
Caught a winner yesterday in the 5th at Will Rogers when My Wise Cat took command at the ½ mile pole and cruised home to a V. Although not a banner payday, it was a win.
Since returning, I am 28: 9-6-1
Using $2/w and $4/place, that’s $179 bet, $191.70 returned: for a net of $10.70 - an roi of 7.09%.
Today we are looking at two handicap races from Will Rogers Downs, the 7th and 9th. A handicap race is where the Racing Secretary or Handicapper assigns weights to each horse so that all entrants have a chance of winning – like giving strokes in golf.
Race 7 - $17,050 Handicap for 3yo+ fillies and mares going five and a half furlongs.
After running the Equibase numbers in SmartCap, we have #6 Tee Em Eye (5/2) with best overall class and speed. #9 Ari Gia (7/2) with best last and third best overall speed and class, #5 Drip Brew (3/1) with near best overall speed and class and #1 Ima Discreet Lady (7/2) with third best overall speed and class, as well.
#6 Tee Em Eye is a TuP/Sun/Zia shipper and as I mentioned yesterday, horses coming from there have not fared well at WRD. Additionally, she has not had a race or workout at the track and now coming off a four-month layoff, I will pass.
#9 Ari Gia is another shipper who is from a long layoff with no works or races at the track, so, again, I will pass.
#1 Ima Discreet Lady has had two races over the track recently with her last against similar company. She came out of the three hole, chased #5 Drip Brew and almost caught her at the wire. Today, she gets the added ½ extra furlong, however, has the dead rail to contend with. Hopefully Broberg/Cabrera have the wherewithal to stalk, move off the rail and close into the fact pace.
#5 Drip Brew is coming off a win, where she was uncontested on the front end, and will have the early speed in this.
My Bet:
With the advent of 3-4-6-8 shipping in and coming off layoffs, #5 Drip Brew is not going to get a clear shot at the lead. The ones mentioned above will chase to the front and cause early fractions to be faster than usual for this level. If Cabrera gets off the rail and lays off the pace until the turn, he will have #1 Ima Discreet Lady well positioned to take this.
Race 9 - $17,050 Handicap for 3yo+ going six furlongs.
#3 Lawton (3/1), another Broberg/Cabrera entry, has best overall speed and near best overall class. He also has next best last race.
#8 Bending Saint (4/1) Has near best overall speed and best overall class. His two and three back races clock in with the best numbers.
#6 Oil Money (5/2) has best last with his 18/1 win in The Highland Ice Stakes.
#4 Shred The Rules (6/1) has near best overall speed and class, a recent win versus similar at WRD and is trained by hot trainer Jon Arnett (42%, 50% with jockey Leandro Goncalves -16 wins).
#5 Drc All Inclusive (6/1) is also a close class and speed horse. The connections have changed trainer, something frequent with the advent of our recent times.
#7 Recount (12/1) is an interesting sort with him being the wealthiest of the entries - $709K on 49 tries for an average of $14.5K per time out. He will be someone to include in your exotic bet(s).
My Bet:
Of the 25 races, 5 wins and 5 places, #3 Lawton, had 12 of those on turf with 2 wins, 4 places and two shows for approximately ½ his bankroll. So, he is a versatile sort with a closing kick to chase the front runners Oil Money, Bending Saint and #1 Knox Court (10/1). However, Shred The Rules has the highest earnings per race at the track and a faster late kick. The stretch out today from his last will be an added benefit.
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Happy Hunting!
